Fig. 3

Number of false positive and true positive results in hypothetical cohort of 10,000 ART patients with elevated viral load at varied resistance prevalence estimates. Using the sensitivities and specificities for each risk score at the defined threshold, we generated the number of false positives and true positives that would be expected among a 10,000-person cohort of patients with an initially elevated viral load. We evaluated these outcomes at varying levels of ART resistance. As the prevalence of resistance increases, the positive predictive value of the risk scores also improves