Fig. 3

Cumulative dynamics of cases due to the most common DENV strains detected during the epidemic and their case contributory pattern in 2013 and 2014. The weekly national serotype data and weekly EHI genotype data from 2007 to 2014 were used to estimate the historical genotype proportions. In order to obtain smooth estimates of genotype proportions over time, a Bayesian approach was used assuming multinomial distribution of serotypes and genotypes, and an auto-correlated prior distribution for logarithm transformed proportions. Bayesian estimates of the weekly genotype proportions were sampled from the posterior distribution, which were used together with weekly national case count to calculate the weekly cases attributed to each genotype as well the cumulative case count. The analysis was done using R software version 3.1.1 [33]. Only the genotypes dominant during the epidemic years have been plotted in the graph