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Table 2 Tabulated selected results of Analysis II from Fig. 3 and with the exponential decay scenario

From: Implementation of coordinated global serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine cessation: risks of inadvertent trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine use

Population with properties likea Minimum half-life (years) before exponential decay in inadvertent tOPV use in RI leads to a cVDPV2 outbreak Minimum duration (years) of rectangular inadvertent tOPV use in RI after the switch that leads to a cVDPV2 outbreak, for indicated inadvertent tOPV RI proportion
0.5 % 1 % 5 % Proportion (given in parentheses) leading to shortest minimum duration
Hypothetical population      
 - High R0 0.16 1.5 1.3 0.85 0.69 (0.25)
 - Lower R0 0.27 2.2 1.9 1.3 1.2 (0.15)
Northern India,      
 - Under-vaccinated 0.16 1.8 1.2 0.92 0.83 (0.25)
 - General 0.17 1.8 1.2 0.96 0.89 (0.2)
Northern Pakistan/Afghanistan      
 - Under-vaccinated 0.15 1.7 1.1 0.85 0.72 (0.5)
 - General 0.22 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.95 (0.15)
Northern Nigeria      
 - Under-vaccinated 0.22 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.75 (0.4)
 - General 0.32 2.7 2.1 1.7 1.6 (0.15)
Ukraine      
 - Under-vaccinated 0.81 2.7 2.1 1.7 1.6 (0.15)
 - General -b -c -c -c -c
  1. Abbreviations: cVDPV2 serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus, RI routine immunization, tOPV trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine
  2. aSee Table 1 for assumed properties for each population
  3. bWe observed either die-out of OPV2-related virus (for half-lives below approximately 4 years) or continued low-level circulation until the end of the analytical time horizon (i.e., 2053) (for longer half-lives)
  4. cNo cVDPV2 outbreak occurred for durations up to and including the last year of the analytical time horizon, although after > 15 years of inadvertent tOPV use in RI, the cumulative incidence of vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis exceeded the detection threshold