|
Population with properties like
|
Properties
|
Minimum time (years) since switch when inadvertent tOPV use in an SIA leads to a cVDPV2 outbreak for indicated inadvertent tOPV SIA coverage
|
|---|
|
Income level
|
R0
a
|
poro
|
tr
|
POL3
|
# tOPV SIAs (2015–2016)
|
TC
|
Prm
|
dt
|
0.1 %
|
0.5 %
|
1 %
|
Inadvertent tOPV coverage (given in parentheses) leading to shortest minimum time
|
|---|
|
Hypothetical population
|
Lower middle
| |
0.3
|
0.6
|
0.3
|
4
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
1
| | | | |
|
- High R0
| |
13b
| | | | | | | |
1.2
|
0.83
|
0.72
|
0.47 (0.15)
|
|
- Lower R0
| |
10b
| | | | | | | |
1.8
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
0.86 (0.15)
|
|
Northern India
|
Lower middle
|
13c
|
0.3
|
0.6
| |
6
| | |
1
| | | | |
|
- Under-vaccinated
| | | | |
0.3
| |
0.8
|
0.7
| |
1.2
|
0.88
|
0.82
|
0.65 (0.2)
|
|
- General
| | | | |
0.6
| |
0.95
|
0.5
| |
1.7
|
0.95
|
0.87
|
0.71 (0.2)
|
|
Northern Pakistan/Afghanistan
|
Low
|
11c
|
0.3
|
0.65
| | | | |
3
| | | | |
|
- Under-vaccinated
| | | | |
0.1
|
5
|
0.35
|
0.95
| |
0.94
|
0.76
|
0.7
|
0.52 (0.15)
|
|
- General
| | | | |
0.6
|
4
|
0.8
|
0.7
| |
1.8
|
0.99
|
0.91
|
0.75 (0.2)
|
|
Northern Nigeria
|
Lower middle
|
8d
|
0.3
|
0.7
| |
7
| | | | | | | |
|
- Under-vaccinated
| | | | |
0.05
| |
0.15
|
0.95
|
3
|
1.5
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.51 (0.1)
|
|
- General
| | | | |
3
| |
0.8
|
0.7
|
2
|
1.9
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
1.3 (0.1)
|
|
Ukraine
|
Upper middle
|
6e
|
0.8
|
0.74
| |
0
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
3
| | | | |
|
- Under-vaccinated
| | | | |
0.3f
| | | | |
2.9
|
1.8
|
0.93
|
0.82 (0.1)
|
|
- General
| | | | |
0.7f
| | | | |
32
|
12
|
8.9
|
6.7 (0.1)
|
-
Abbreviations: cVDPV2 serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus, RI routine immunization, SIA supplemental immunization activity, tOPV trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine, WPV wild poliovirus
-
Model input symbols: [8, 16] R
0
average annual basic reproduction number for WPV of serotype 1, tr take rate of serotype 2 tOPV, POL3 RI coverage with 3 or more non-birth doses, TC true coverage of each SIA, p
oro proportion of transmissions via oropharyngeal route, dt detection threshold (cumulative paralytic polio cases per 10 million people until outbreak detection occurs)
-
aThe model uses R0 for serotype 1 WPV to characterize variability in subpopulations; R0 for serotype 2 WPV equals 0.9 times the values shown in this column
-
bNo seasonality
-
cSeasonal amplitude in R0 of 20 % with peak on 180th day of each year
-
dSeasonal amplitude in R0 of 10 % with peak on 120th day of each year
-
eSeasonal amplitude in R0 of 40 % with peak on 180th day of each year
-
fAssume POL3 = 90 % prior to 2010
