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Table 1 Populations modeled and tabulated selected results from Fig. 2 (Analysis I)

From: Implementation of coordinated global serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine cessation: risks of inadvertent trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine use

Population with properties like Properties Minimum time (years) since switch when inadvertent tOPV use in an SIA leads to a cVDPV2 outbreak for indicated inadvertent tOPV SIA coverage
Income level R0 a poro tr POL3 # tOPV SIAs (2015–2016) TC Prm dt 0.1 % 0.5 % 1 % Inadvertent tOPV coverage (given in parentheses) leading to shortest minimum time
Hypothetical population Lower middle   0.3 0.6 0.3 4 0.8 0.7 1     
- High R0   13b         1.2 0.83 0.72 0.47 (0.15)
- Lower R0   10b         1.8 1.3 1.1 0.86 (0.15)
Northern India Lower middle 13c 0.3 0.6   6    1     
- Under-vaccinated      0.3   0.8 0.7   1.2 0.88 0.82 0.65 (0.2)
- General      0.6   0.95 0.5   1.7 0.95 0.87 0.71 (0.2)
Northern Pakistan/Afghanistan Low 11c 0.3 0.65      3     
- Under-vaccinated      0.1 5 0.35 0.95   0.94 0.76 0.7 0.52 (0.15)
- General      0.6 4 0.8 0.7   1.8 0.99 0.91 0.75 (0.2)
Northern Nigeria Lower middle 8d 0.3 0.7   7        
- Under-vaccinated      0.05   0.15 0.95 3 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.51 (0.1)
- General      3   0.8 0.7 2 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 (0.1)
Ukraine Upper middle 6e 0.8 0.74   0 0.8 0.7 3     
- Under-vaccinated      0.3f      2.9 1.8 0.93 0.82 (0.1)
- General      0.7f      32 12 8.9 6.7 (0.1)
  1. Abbreviations: cVDPV2 serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus, RI routine immunization, SIA supplemental immunization activity, tOPV trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine, WPV wild poliovirus
  2. Model input symbols: [8, 16] R 0 average annual basic reproduction number for WPV of serotype 1, tr take rate of serotype 2 tOPV, POL3 RI coverage with 3 or more non-birth doses, TC true coverage of each SIA, p oro proportion of transmissions via oropharyngeal route, dt detection threshold (cumulative paralytic polio cases per 10 million people until outbreak detection occurs)
  3. aThe model uses R0 for serotype 1 WPV to characterize variability in subpopulations; R0 for serotype 2 WPV equals 0.9 times the values shown in this column
  4. bNo seasonality
  5. cSeasonal amplitude in R0 of 20 % with peak on 180th day of each year
  6. dSeasonal amplitude in R0 of 10 % with peak on 120th day of each year
  7. eSeasonal amplitude in R0 of 40 % with peak on 180th day of each year
  8. fAssume POL3 = 90 % prior to 2010
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