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Table 4 Number of iterations with vaccine needs that exceed the expected stockpile doses for different outbreak response choices

From: Characterization of outbreak response strategies and potential vaccine stockpile needs for the polio endgame

Outbreak response choice

Number of iterations that require > 100 million doses

Number of iterations that require > 500 million doses

Number of iterations with expected mOPV stockout

mOPV1

mOPV2

mOPV3

tOPV

IPV

mOPV1

mOPV2

mOPV3

tOPV

IPV

mOPV1

mOPV2

mOPV3

Any

Base case

23

12

8

N/A

6

1

0

1

N/A

2

19

11

7

27

Duration of mOPV use after homotypic OPV cessation (years)

 

 - 3

20

11

7

N/A

17

0

0

1

N/A

11

18

11

7

27

 - through Tend

24

12

9

N/A

1

0

1

1

N/A

0

19

11

8

28

Minimum R0 to trigger block-wide response

 

 - 8

32

18

14

N/A

8

2

0

1

N/A

3

28

16

13

44

 - 13

20

11

11

N/A

6

2

0

1

N/A

3

17

9

11

30

Response delay (days)a

 

 - Always 30

22

13

8

N/A

5

1

0

0

N/A

2

18

11

7

26

 - Always 45

23

12

8

N/A

6

1

0

1

N/A

3

19

11

7

27

 - Always 60

24

12

8

N/A

8

2

0

1

N/A

5

20

11

7

28

oSIA vaccine between OPV2 and OPV13 cessation for serotype 2 outbreaks

 

 - tOPV

23

0

8

11

6

1

0

1

0

2

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

 - IPV

23

12

8

N/A

21

1

0

1

N/A

3

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

  1. Abbreviations: IPV inactivated poliovirus vaccine, iVDPV immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus, mOPV(1,2,3) monovalent OPV (serotype 1, 2, or 3, respectively), OPV oral poliovirus vaccine, OPV## cessation globally-coordinated cessation of OPV containing the serotype(s) indicated by ##, oSIA outbreak response supplemental immunization activity, R 0 basic reproduction number, T end end of the analytical time horizon (i.e., December 31, 2052), tOPV trivalent OPV
  2. aAll alternative choices assume non-adaptive surveillance quality (detection threshold) and response delay in the event of a subpopulation-specific response