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Table 4 Number of iterations with vaccine needs that exceed the expected stockpile doses for different outbreak response choices

From: Characterization of outbreak response strategies and potential vaccine stockpile needs for the polio endgame

Outbreak response choice Number of iterations that require > 100 million doses Number of iterations that require > 500 million doses Number of iterations with expected mOPV stockout
mOPV1 mOPV2 mOPV3 tOPV IPV mOPV1 mOPV2 mOPV3 tOPV IPV mOPV1 mOPV2 mOPV3 Any
Base case 23 12 8 N/A 6 1 0 1 N/A 2 19 11 7 27
Duration of mOPV use after homotypic OPV cessation (years)  
 - 3 20 11 7 N/A 17 0 0 1 N/A 11 18 11 7 27
 - through Tend 24 12 9 N/A 1 0 1 1 N/A 0 19 11 8 28
Minimum R0 to trigger block-wide response  
 - 8 32 18 14 N/A 8 2 0 1 N/A 3 28 16 13 44
 - 13 20 11 11 N/A 6 2 0 1 N/A 3 17 9 11 30
Response delay (days)a  
 - Always 30 22 13 8 N/A 5 1 0 0 N/A 2 18 11 7 26
 - Always 45 23 12 8 N/A 6 1 0 1 N/A 3 19 11 7 27
 - Always 60 24 12 8 N/A 8 2 0 1 N/A 5 20 11 7 28
oSIA vaccine between OPV2 and OPV13 cessation for serotype 2 outbreaks  
 - tOPV 23 0 8 11 6 1 0 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
 - IPV 23 12 8 N/A 21 1 0 1 N/A 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
  1. Abbreviations: IPV inactivated poliovirus vaccine, iVDPV immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus, mOPV(1,2,3) monovalent OPV (serotype 1, 2, or 3, respectively), OPV oral poliovirus vaccine, OPV## cessation globally-coordinated cessation of OPV containing the serotype(s) indicated by ##, oSIA outbreak response supplemental immunization activity, R 0 basic reproduction number, T end end of the analytical time horizon (i.e., December 31, 2052), tOPV trivalent OPV
  2. aAll alternative choices assume non-adaptive surveillance quality (detection threshold) and response delay in the event of a subpopulation-specific response