|
Outbreak response choice or assumption
|
Number of affected iterations
|
mOPV exportations (totals from 100 iterations)
|
PID patients infected with OPV used during oSIAs (totals from 100 iterations)
|
OPV restarts
|
Expected paralytic cases 2013–2052 (after OPV cessation)a
|
|---|
|
Potential expor-tations
|
Effective reintro-ductions (to other blocks)
|
Out-breaks
|
Newly infected long-term excretors
|
Potential iVDPV reintro-ductions
|
Effective iVDPV reintro-ductions
|
Out-breaks
|
No OPV restart
|
OPV restart
|
All
|
|---|
|
Base case
|
N/A
|
3,618
|
312 (14)
|
0
|
117
|
96
|
22
|
10
|
2
|
340
|
720,000
|
15,000
|
|
Duration of mOPV use after homotypic OPV cessation (years)
| |
|
- 3
|
77
|
3,141
|
255 (11)
|
0
|
84
|
57
|
15
|
7
|
10b
|
240
|
850,000
|
85,000
|
|
- through Tend
|
30
|
4,153
|
364 (18)
|
0
|
136
|
119
|
23
|
19
|
0
|
370
|
-
|
370
|
|
Minimum R0 to trigger block-wide response
| |
|
- 8
|
45
|
5,709
|
479 (23)
|
0
|
173
|
151
|
34
|
16
|
2b
|
370
|
610,000
|
13,000
|
|
- 13
|
43
|
1,323
|
155 (12)
|
1
|
64
|
66
|
15
|
7
|
4
|
370
|
1,000,000
|
40,000
|
|
Response delay (days)c
|
|
- Always 30
|
96
|
3,521
|
300 (15)
|
0
|
106
|
99
|
23
|
10
|
2
|
240
|
530,000
|
11,000
|
|
- Always 45
|
92
|
3,620
|
311 (14)
|
0
|
117
|
96
|
22
|
10
|
3
|
620
|
1,000,000
|
29,000
|
|
- Always 60
|
96
|
3,936
|
335 (18)
|
0
|
133
|
106
|
23
|
10
|
6
|
640
|
1,100,000
|
64,000
|
|
oSIA vaccine between OPV2 and OPV13 cessation for serotype 2 outbreaks
| |
|
- tOPV
|
36
|
3,634
|
315 (5)
|
0
|
117
|
96
|
21
|
10
|
2
|
340
|
720,000
|
15,000
|
|
- IPV
|
36
|
3,586
|
317 (14)
|
1
|
121
|
96
|
22
|
11
|
3
|
360
|
740,000
|
22,000
|
|
Finite mOPV stockpile
|
27
|
3,962
|
347 (19)
|
0
|
166
|
102
|
24
|
10
|
7b
|
1,300
|
770,000
|
55,000
|
-
Abbreviations: IPV inactivated poliovirus vaccine, iVDPV immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus; mOPV, monovalent OPV, OPV oral poliovirus vaccine, OPV## cessation globally-coordinated cessation of OPV containing the serotype(s) indicated by ##, oSIA outbreak response supplemental immunization activity, PID primary immunodeficiency disease, R
0
basic reproduction number, T
end
end of the analytical time horizon (i.e., December 31, 2052), tOPV trivalent OPV
-
aDoes not include a total of approximately 1,000 expected WPV, VAPP, and cVDPV cases that occur before OPV cessation of each serotype [2]
-
bOne additional iteration had ongoing LPV transmission at Tend without having accumulated 50,000 cases since 2016
-
cAll alternative choices assume non-adaptive surveillance quality (detection threshold) and response delay in the event of a subpopulation-specific response
