Outbreak response choice | Base case | Alternative(s) | Iterations considered | Outcomes of interest |
---|---|---|---|---|
Initial number of oSIAsa | 4 (R0 < 12) | 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 | 1 selected iteration | Behavior |
6 (R0 ≥ 12) | ||||
oSIA impact levelb,c | B | A, B, or C | 1 selected iteration | Behavior |
Interval between oSIAs (days)c | 30 | 15 | 1 selected iteration | Behavior |
Mixed IPV/OPV use (ring) | None | mOPV (outbreak subpopulation); IPV (other subpopulations in block) | Selected iterations | Behavior, mOPV exportations, new iVDPV excretors, OPV restarts |
Duration of mOPV use after homotypic OPV cessation (years) | 5 | 3, 10, 20, or through Tend | All affected | Effective mOPV exportations; new iVDPV excretors; OPV restarts |
Geographical scope (minimum R0 to trigger block-wide response) | 10 | 8 or 13 | All affected | Effective mOPV exportations; new iVDPV excretors; OPV restarts |
Response delay (days)d and detection thresholde | Delay 45 and threshold variable (initial detection) or delay 30 and threshold 1 (oSIAs ongoing in block) | Delay always 30, 45, or 50 and threshold always variable | All affected | Behavior; OPV restarts |
Serotype 2 vaccine between OPV2 and OPV13 cessation | Serotype 2 mOPV | tOPV, IPV | All affected +1 iteration without tOPV intensification | Population immunity; number and size of outbreak; OPV restarts |
Finite mOPV stockpile | Unlimited stockpiles | 100 million filled and 400 million bulk doses of each mOPV serotype | All affected | Behavior; OPV restarts |