Fig 1

Global tuberculosis incidence per 100,000 person-years. a, b, Endemic equilibrium states for model in appendix (black curves: a, homogeneous; b, heterogeneous). Colored lines represent the TB incidences reported by WHO in all countries, and associated R ₀. Countries are color-coded by WHO region: African (red); South-East Asia (yellow); Eastern Mediterranean (cyan); Western Pacific (green); Europe (blue); The Americas (magenta). c, Simulation of a vaccine that halves susceptibility to infection and reduces reactivation rate by 90 %. Dashed and dash-dotted curves correspond to populations with variance-to-mean ratios of 0 (homogeneous) and 20 (heterogeneous), respectively, in two epidemiological settings: baseline incidence of 1000 per 100,000 person-years (red); and 50 per 100,000 person-years (grey)