Natural history-related parameter | Annual probability | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
 | HIV- subpopulation | Source | HIV+ subpopulation | Source |
HPV-Onc to CIN1 | 0.049 | Adjusted from [60] (0.15 after 36Â months and 0.21 after 60Â months) | 0.096 | [49] |
HPV-Onc to CIN2/3 | 0 | Spontaneous progression from HPV-onc to CIN2/3 within 1Â year; assumed to be 0 | 0 | Assumption (same as HIV- subpopulation) |
HPV-Onc clearance to normal | 0.293–0.553 | 0.212 | [49] | |
CIN1 to CIN2/3 | 0.091 | 0.098 | [49] | |
CIN2/3 cured | 0.227 | 0.227 | Assumption (same as HIV- subpopulation) | |
CIN2/3 to CIN1 | 0 | Spontaneous regression from CIN2/3 to CIN1 within 1Â year; assumed to be 0; all patients cured going to no HPV assumption | 0 | Assumption (same as HIV- subpopulation) |
HIV- CIN2/3 to persistent CIN2/3 | 0.114 | 0.114 | Assumption (same as HIV- subpopulation) | |
Persistent CIN2/3 to cervical cancer | Age 15: 0.00Â % | Based on estimated CIN2/3 and reported cervical cancer progression rates | Age 15: 0.00Â % | Applied relative risk ratio of 2 for HIV+ based on the progression rate from LSIL to HSIL [64] |
Age 35: 1.10Â % | Age 35: 2.20Â % | |||
Age 45: 2.52Â % | Age 45: 5.04Â % | |||
Age 60: 7.56Â %a | Age 60: 15.12Â %a |