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Table 3 Estimation of the yearly number of averted Lyme diseases cases in the United States based on the number of Lyme disease cases reported (approximately 30,000) or estimated (around 300,000) using three different analyses. The number of averted cases was calculated using three different estimates of reinfection rates: 1 %, 3 %, and 5 %

From: Public health impact of strain specific immunity to Borrelia burgdorferi

Lyme disease incidence

Immunity length

Estimated number of averted cases

  

Deterministic probability modela

  

1 % reinfection

3 % reinfection

5 % reinfection

30,000 cases

life span

77

232

387

300,000 cases

life span

775

2,324

3,873

  

Equilibrium dynamic model

  

1 % reinfection

3 % reinfection

5 % reinfection

30,000 cases

5 years

11

32

53

30,000 cases

30 years

78

233

390

300,000 cases

5 years

106

319

532

300,000 cases

30 years

776

2,333

3,898

  

Individual-based stochastic model

  

1 % reinfection

3 % reinfection

5 % reinfection

30,000 cases

5 years

23

55

80

30,000 cases

30 years

90

238

410

300,000 cases

5 years

227

549

799

300,000 cases

30 years

899

2,378

4,100

  1. aCalculations based on the values in Table 1