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Table 3 Estimation of the yearly number of averted Lyme diseases cases in the United States based on the number of Lyme disease cases reported (approximately 30,000) or estimated (around 300,000) using three different analyses. The number of averted cases was calculated using three different estimates of reinfection rates: 1 %, 3 %, and 5 %

From: Public health impact of strain specific immunity to Borrelia burgdorferi

Lyme disease incidence Immunity length Estimated number of averted cases
   Deterministic probability modela
   1 % reinfection 3 % reinfection 5 % reinfection
30,000 cases life span 77 232 387
300,000 cases life span 775 2,324 3,873
   Equilibrium dynamic model
   1 % reinfection 3 % reinfection 5 % reinfection
30,000 cases 5 years 11 32 53
30,000 cases 30 years 78 233 390
300,000 cases 5 years 106 319 532
300,000 cases 30 years 776 2,333 3,898
   Individual-based stochastic model
   1 % reinfection 3 % reinfection 5 % reinfection
30,000 cases 5 years 23 55 80
30,000 cases 30 years 90 238 410
300,000 cases 5 years 227 549 799
300,000 cases 30 years 899 2,378 4,100
  1. aCalculations based on the values in Table 1