From: Public health impact of strain specific immunity to Borrelia burgdorferi
Lyme disease incidence | Immunity length | Estimated number of averted cases | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Deterministic probability modela | ||||
1 % reinfection | 3 % reinfection | 5 % reinfection | ||
30,000 cases | life span | 77 | 232 | 387 |
300,000 cases | life span | 775 | 2,324 | 3,873 |
Equilibrium dynamic model | ||||
1 % reinfection | 3 % reinfection | 5 % reinfection | ||
30,000 cases | 5 years | 11 | 32 | 53 |
30,000 cases | 30 years | 78 | 233 | 390 |
300,000 cases | 5 years | 106 | 319 | 532 |
300,000 cases | 30 years | 776 | 2,333 | 3,898 |
Individual-based stochastic model | ||||
1 % reinfection | 3 % reinfection | 5 % reinfection | ||
30,000 cases | 5 years | 23 | 55 | 80 |
30,000 cases | 30 years | 90 | 238 | 410 |
300,000 cases | 5 years | 227 | 549 | 799 |
300,000 cases | 30 years | 899 | 2,378 | 4,100 |