Table 3 Performance assessment of multivariable models developed on development subset and validated on validation set (predicting outcomes based on measurements in validation set and comparing with known blood culture result)
Model name | Variables included | Percent correctly classified | Specificity (95 % CI) | NPV (95 % CI) | Sensitivity (95 % CI) | PPV (95 % CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saturated multivariable model (based on univariate p < 0.15) | Malignancy, low systolic, low diastolic, high pulse, CRB 65 score, source | 91 % (225/248) | 0.98 (0.96, 1.00) | 0.92 (0.88, 0.95) | 0.05 (0.00, 0.25) | 0.02 (0.01, 0.72) |
Trimmed multivariable model (drop variables with multivariable p > 0.15) | Source, CRB 65 score | 91 % (225/248) | Same as saturated | Same as saturated | Same as saturated | Same as saturated |
Classification tree (only Source used) | All variables (continuous version if available) | 90 % (225/250) | 0.97 (0.94, 0.99) | 0.92 (0.88, 0.95) | 0.05 (0.00, 0.25) | 0.14 (0.00, 0.45) |