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Table 7 Expected global vaccination costs, paralytic cases, and incremental net benefits in 2013 United States dollars ($) for various policy options and alternative assumptions, compared to the reference case without SIAs (i.e., policy RC no SIA)

From: An economic analysis of poliovirus risk management policy options for 2013–2052

Global minimum policy Number of iterations with OPV restart Expected vaccination costs ($ billions) Expected paralytic polio cases Expected incremental net benefits ($ billions)
IPV5 2 37 6,500 16
IPV10 2 38 6,200 15
IPV through Tend 10 42 21,000 10
No IPV 6 37 23,000 15
Variations on IPV5     
IPV5, PAVD40% 2 37 6,500 16
IPV5, PAVD90% 1 36 2,300 16
No tOPV intensification prior to OPV2 cessation 3 37 9,200 16
Doubled frequency of exportations 5 38 29,000 14
Threshold for OPV restart     
 - 15,000 cumulative cases 2 37 6,500 16
 - 10,000 cumulative cases 3 37 12,000 16
 - 5,000 cumulative cases 4 37 16,000 16
 - 1,000 cumulative cases 8 37 48,000 15
  1. Abbreviations(see Table1for policy abbreviations): IPV, inactivated poliovirus vaccine; OPV, oral poliovirus vaccine; PAVD (40 %,90 %), polio antiviral drug (passive or active use, respectively); RC, reference case; SIA, supplemental immunization activity; Tend, end of analytical time horizon (i.e., December 31, 2052); tOPV, trivalent OPV