Table 7 Expected global vaccination costs, paralytic cases, and incremental net benefits in 2013 United States dollars ($) for various policy options and alternative assumptions, compared to the reference case without SIAs (i.e., policy RC no SIA)
From: An economic analysis of poliovirus risk management policy options for 2013–2052
Global minimum policy | Number of iterations with OPV restart | Expected vaccination costs ($ billions) | Expected paralytic polio cases | Expected incremental net benefits ($ billions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
IPV5 | 2 | 37 | 6,500 | 16 |
IPV10 | 2 | 38 | 6,200 | 15 |
IPV through Tend | 10 | 42 | 21,000 | 10 |
No IPV | 6 | 37 | 23,000 | 15 |
Variations on IPV5 | ||||
IPV5, PAVD40% | 2 | 37 | 6,500 | 16 |
IPV5, PAVD90% | 1 | 36 | 2,300 | 16 |
No tOPV intensification prior to OPV2 cessation | 3 | 37 | 9,200 | 16 |
Doubled frequency of exportations | 5 | 38 | 29,000 | 14 |
Threshold for OPV restart | ||||
- 15,000 cumulative cases | 2 | 37 | 6,500 | 16 |
- 10,000 cumulative cases | 3 | 37 | 12,000 | 16 |
- 5,000 cumulative cases | 4 | 37 | 16,000 | 16 |
- 1,000 cumulative cases | 8 | 37 | 48,000 | 15 |