Table 4 Global model inputs that do not vary between blocks, characterization of oSIAs, and characterization of non-cVDPV risks and potential polio antiviral drug use
From: An economic analysis of poliovirus risk management policy options for 2013–2052
Model input | Value |
|---|---|
Age groups | 0-2, 3–11 months; 1–4, 5–9, 10–14, 15-39a; ≥ 40 yearsa |
Number of equally-sized subpopulations per block | 10 |
Proportion of children receiving fewer than 3 non-birth RI doses who receive 1 non-birth dose | 0.2 |
Proportion of children receiving fewer than 3 non-birth RI doses who receive 2 non-birth doses | 0.2 |
Relative coverage with birth dose compared to non-birth RI coverage with 3 doses | |
- LOW, LMI blocks that use OPV-only at T0 | 0.5 |
- All other blocks | 0 |
Average per-dose take rate for IPV | |
- LOW, LMI | 0.63 |
- UMI | 0.70 |
- HIGH | 0.75 |
Duration of each SIA (days) | 5 |
Number of oSIA rounds | |
- Before homotypic OPV cessation | 3 |
- After homotypic OPV cessation, R0 < 12 | 4 |
- After homotypic OPV cessation, R0 ≥ 12 | 6 |
Geographical scope of oSIAs | |
- Before homotypic OPV cessation | Subpopulation |
- After homotypic OPV cessation, R0 < 10 | Subpopulation |
- After homotypic OPV cessation, R0 ≥ 10 | Block |
Target age groups | Cohorts born since OPV cessation, rounded to next multiple of 5 |
oSIA impact | |
- True coverage | 0.8 |
- Repeated missed probability | 0.7 |
Time from outbreak detection until the first oSIA (days)b | |
- No ongoing outbreak response in block | 45 |
- Outbreak response already ongoing in block | 30 |
Interval between oSIA rounds (days) | 30 |
Number of years when mOPV allowed for oSIAs after OPV cessation of each type (years) | 5 |
Exportation threshold (E*, i.e., cumulative effective infections needed to trigger a potential exportation from a subpopulation) | 200,000 |
Proportion of virus exportations | |
- within the same block | 0.960 |
- in another block within the same region | 0.035 |
- outside of the region | 0.005 |
Characterization of post-OPV cessation risks (non-cVDPV) | |
Average time between contacts of long-term iVDPV excretors with the general population (days) | 150-600 |
Global Poisson ratec for release of unreturned OPV (only during first year after OPV cessation of each type and in blocks that use OPV at T0) (1/year) | 0.1 |
Global Poisson ratec for release from IPV production site (1/year) | 0.2 |
Global Poisson ratec for other unintentional or intentional release (1/year) | 0.025 |
Probability that other unintentional or intentional release is unintentional | 0.5 |
Distribution of unintentional releases by income level | |
- LOW | 0 |
- LMI | 0.01 |
- UMI | 0.09 |
- HIGH | 0.90 |
Distribution of intentional releases by income level | |
- LOW, LMI, UMI | 0.5 |
- HIGH | 0.5 |
Characterization of impacts of PAVDs | |
Proportion of long-term iVDPV excretors who had VAPP that receive PAVDs | |
- No PAVDs (base case) | 0 |
- PAVD40% | 0.5 |
- PAVD90% | 0.9 |
Proportion of asymptomatic long-term iVDPV excretors that receive PAVDs | |
- No PAVDs (base case) | 0 |
- PAVD40% | 0 |
- PAVD90% | 0.9 |
Proportion of long-term iVDPV excretors receiving PAVDs who recover | |
- PAVD40% | 0.4 |
- PAVD90% | 0.9 |