Expected, undiscounted burden of polio cases for the main policy options based on 100 stochastic iterations of the global poliovirus transmission model. (a) Assuming OPV restart without SIAs if more than 50,000 cumulative cases occur after. (b) Assuming OPV restart with SIAs if more than 50,000 cumulative cases occur after 2016. (c) Including only iterations without OPV restart (omitting reference case without SIAs, which remains beyond the scale for this panel). See Table 1 for policy abbreviations.