Vaccination of boys or catch-up of girls above 11 years of age with the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine: where is the greatest benefit for cervical cancer prevention in Italy?

Table 1 Input data in the mathematical model

	Parameter	Value	References
Vaccination	Cohort size	281,000	[53]
	Global vaccine efficacy CC (proxy CIN3+)	93 %	[12]
	Global vaccine efficacy CIN2/3 (proxy CIN2+)	65 %	[12]
	Global vaccine efficacy CIN1 (proxy CIN1+)	50 %	[12]
	Age at vaccination	11, 15 or 25 years	Assumed
	Vaccine waning	None	Assumed
Screening	Screening age range	25 to 64 years	[32]
	Screening interval	every 3 years	[32]
	Percentage screened	65 %	[32]
	Percentage never screened	35 %	[32]
	Cytology sensitivity	58–61 %	[54]
	Compliance to CIN 1 treatment	37 %	[32], expert opinion
	Compliance to CIN 2/3 treatment	100 %	[32], expert opinion
	Efficacy of CIN treatment	90 %	[32], expert opinion
Transition Probabilities	Healthy to HPV	0.07	[55]
	HPV to CIN 1	0.05	[56]
	CIN 1 to CIN 2/3	0.09	[57–59]
	CIN 2/3 to persistent CIN 2/3	0.11	[57, 59]
	HPV clearance to healthy	0.45	[60–64]
	CIN 1 clearance	0.24	[57–59]
	CIN 2/3 clearance	0.23	[57, 59]
	Persistent CIN 2/3 to CC	0–0.06	Calibrated

CC cervical cancer, CIN cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, HPV Human Papillomavirus

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