The impact of aggregating serogroups in dynamic models of Neisseria meningitidis transmission

Poore, Keith D; Bauch, Chris T

doi:10.1186/s12879-015-1015-8

BMC Infectious Diseases

Table 5 Reduction in prevalence of carriage with the 4CMenB vaccine

From: The impact of aggregating serogroups in dynamic models of Neisseria meningitidis transmission

Vaccine Program	Model Type	Serogroup	t = 149	t = 160	t = 175	t = 190	Relative Change
7	2-strain model	B	0.027	0.021	0.008	0.000	−0.996
			(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.000)	(0.006)
		Other	0.109	0.109	0.107	0.107	−0.017
			(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.056)
		Total	0.136	0.131	0.115	0.107	−0.209
			(0.019)	(0.015)	(0.012)	(0.009)	(0.052)
	4-strain model	B	0.031	0.030	0.022	0.004	−0.861
			(0.014)	(0.023)	(0.015)	(0.014)	(0.000)
		C	0.016	0.016	0.019	0.026	0.665
			(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.015)	(0.021)	(0.007)
		Other	0.046	0.039	0.015	0.028	−0.394
			(0.028)	(0.046)	(0.032)	(0.054)	(0.026)
		Nl	0.026	0.025	0.023	0.024	−0.083
			(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.001)
		Total	0.119	0.109	0.079	0.082	−0.308
			(0.059)	(0.086)	(0.066)	(0.093)	(0.240)
8	2-strain model	B	0.027	0.015	0.004	0.000	−0.995
			(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.000)	(−0.006)
		Other	0.110	0.109	0.107	0.108	−0.016
			(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.011)	(0.010)	(0.004)
		Total	0.137	0.124	0.111	0.108	−0.210
			(0.012)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.010)	(0.048)
	4-strain model	B	0.033	0.025	0.016	0.003	−0.900
			(0.016)	(0.019)	(0.018)	(0.013)	(0.003)
		C	0.015	0.019	0.023	0.030	0.931
			(0.020)	(0.022)	(0.024)	(0.029)	(0.009)
		Other	0.044	0.021	0.014	0.024	−0.444
			(0.027)	(0.032)	(0.029)	(0.038)	(0.011)
		Nl	0.026	0.024	0.023	0.024	−0.075
			(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.001)
		Total	0.117	0.089	0.076	0.081	−0.317
			(0.065)	(0.077)	(0.074)	(0.083)	(0.195)
9	2-strain model	B	0.027	0.013	0.001	0.000	−0.027
			(0.010)	(0.007)	(0.002)	(0.000)	(0.010)
		Other	0.109	0.110	0.107	0.107	−0.999
			(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.009)	(−0.001)
		Total	0.135	0.123	0.108	0.107	−0.206
			(0.020)	(0.015)	(0.011)	(0.009)	(0.057)
	4-strain model	B	0.031	0.025	0.009	0.003	−0.905
			(0.019)	(0.020)	(0.018)	(0.013)	(−0.006)
		C	0.014	0.016	0.023	0.024	0.736
			(0.017)	(0.020)	(0.025)	(0.023)	(0.006)
		Other	0.042	0.022	0.015	0.027	−0.364
			(0.035)	(0.038)	(0.039)	(0.048)	(0.013)
		Nl	0.025	0.023	0.023	0.024	−0.060
			(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.024)	(0.002)
		Total	0.112	0.085	0.070	0.078	−0.302
			(0.075)	(0.082)	(0.085)	(0.089)	(0.264)

Reduction in the prevalence of carriage when an immunization program with the 4CMenB vaccine is scheduled for 12 month (program 7), 12 years (program 8), and both 12 months and 12 years (program 9) beginning at t = 150 years. Results for both 2-strain and 4-strain models are shown

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