Table 1 List of scenario-specific model inputs
Model input | Scenario 1 (Northern India) | Scenario 2 (Northwest Nigeria) | Scenario 3 (Tajikistan) | Scenario 4 (Israel) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Population [model references] | Bihar and Western Uttar Pradesh (WUP), each state with 8 age groups and a preferentially-mixing under-vaccinated subpopulation [7,41,43] | 7 states combined into one population with 11 age-groups with an under-vaccinated subpopulation [7,42,43]** | 3 administrative regions primarily affected by the 2010 outbreak with 11 age groups [7,43] | National population with 13 age groups divided into two preferentially-mixing geographical regions that each include a preferentially-mixing under-vaccinated subpopulation [44] |
Qualitative characteristics | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Overall transmission potential | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Population immunity | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
OPV take rate | Low | Medium | Medium | High |
Surveillance quality | High | Medium | Low | High |
Stochastic model start dates | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Serotype 1 | 2008 | 2013 | 2009 | 2013 |
Serotype 2 | 2008 | 2013 | - | - |
Serotype 3 | 2008 | 2010 | - | - |
Average R0 (WPV1) | 13 | 7.5 | 8 | 5 |
Average EIP* (WPV1) | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.88 | 0.80 |
SIA coverage (general population) | Time series (Bihar: 0.86-0.95; WUP: 0.84-0.94) | 0.85 | 0.95 | 0.80 |
Average RI coverage | 0.65 | 0.11 | 0.40 | 0.95 |
AFP surveillance p = (p1,p2,…, pi) | General (0.95, 0.95, …, 0.95) Subpopulation (0.8, 0.8, …, 0.8) | General (0.80, 0.85, 0.90, …, 0.90) | General (0.20, 0.25, 0.50, 0.50, 0.73, …, 0.73) | General (0.50, 0.75, 0.95, …, 0.95) |
Subpopulation (0.54, 0.57, 0.60, …, 0.60) | ||||
Environmental surveillance | Â | Â | Â | Â |
s = (s1,s2) | - | - | - | (0.30, 0.90) |
Threshold (EI*) | - | - | - | South: (60,60,60,60,60,12,12,10,13,20,20,20,20,20,20) |
Rest of Israel: (113,136,227,170,97,32,43,15,62,68,68,136,38,40,34) |