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Table 1 List of scenario-specific model inputs

From: Modeling undetected live poliovirus circulation after apparent interruption of transmission: implications for surveillance and vaccination

Model input Scenario 1 (Northern India) Scenario 2 (Northwest Nigeria) Scenario 3 (Tajikistan) Scenario 4 (Israel)
Population [model references] Bihar and Western Uttar Pradesh (WUP), each state with 8 age groups and a preferentially-mixing under-vaccinated subpopulation [7,41,43] 7 states combined into one population with 11 age-groups with an under-vaccinated subpopulation [7,42,43]** 3 administrative regions primarily affected by the 2010 outbreak with 11 age groups [7,43] National population with 13 age groups divided into two preferentially-mixing geographical regions that each include a preferentially-mixing under-vaccinated subpopulation [44]
Qualitative characteristics     
Overall transmission potential High Medium Medium Low
Population immunity High Medium Medium Medium
OPV take rate Low Medium Medium High
Surveillance quality High Medium Low High
Stochastic model start dates     
Serotype 1 2008 2013 2009 2013
Serotype 2 2008 2013 - -
Serotype 3 2008 2010 - -
Average R0 (WPV1) 13 7.5 8 5
Average EIP* (WPV1) 0.92 0.87 0.88 0.80
SIA coverage (general population) Time series (Bihar: 0.86-0.95; WUP: 0.84-0.94) 0.85 0.95 0.80
Average RI coverage 0.65 0.11 0.40 0.95
AFP surveillance p = (p1,p2,…, pi) General (0.95, 0.95, …, 0.95) Subpopulation (0.8, 0.8, …, 0.8) General (0.80, 0.85, 0.90, …, 0.90) General (0.20, 0.25, 0.50, 0.50, 0.73, …, 0.73) General (0.50, 0.75, 0.95, …, 0.95)
Subpopulation (0.54, 0.57, 0.60, …, 0.60)
Environmental surveillance     
s = (s1,s2) - - - (0.30, 0.90)
Threshold (EI*) - - - South: (60,60,60,60,60,12,12,10,13,20,20,20,20,20,20)
Rest of Israel: (113,136,227,170,97,32,43,15,62,68,68,136,38,40,34)
  1. Abbreviations: EIP*, threshold of effective immune proportion; R0, basic reproductive number; WPV1, wild poliovirus serotype 1
  2. ** Includes updated SIAs rounds in September 2013 and March 2014 from tOPV to bOPV; updated the current path scenario with 2 rounds using tOPV (in August and November) for 2014 and 3 annual rounds using tOPV (in March, August and November) from 2015 forward until OPV2 cessation; updated RI coverage for consistency with the 2013 DHS survey, [45] with relative RI coverage in the subpopulation of 20% in 2012, 25% in 2013 and 30% in 2014 and forward.