TY - JOUR AU - Kalkowska, Dominika A. AU - Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J. AU - Pallansch, Mark A. AU - Cochi, Stephen L. AU - Wassilak, Steven G. F. AU - Thompson, Kimberly M. PY - 2015 DA - 2015/02/18 TI - Modeling undetected live poliovirus circulation after apparent interruption of transmission: implications for surveillance and vaccination JO - BMC Infectious Diseases SP - 66 VL - 15 IS - 1 AB - Most poliovirus infections occur with no symptoms and this leads to the possibility of silent circulation, which complicates the confirmation of global goals to permanently end poliovirus transmission. Previous simple models based on hypothetical populations assumed perfect detection of symptomatic cases and suggested the need to observe no paralytic cases from wild polioviruses (WPVs) for approximately 3-4 years to achieve 95% confidence about eradication, but the complexities in real populations and the imperfect nature of surveillance require consideration. SN - 1471-2334 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-015-0791-5 DO - 10.1186/s12879-015-0791-5 ID - Kalkowska2015 ER -