Table 2 Evolutionary profiles of H5N1 HPAI viruses: comparisons between strict and relaxed (uncorrelated lognormal) molecular clocks using the constant, exponential growth, Bayesian skyride and Bayesian skyline coalescent prior
From: Spatial, temporal and genetic dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus in China
|  |  | Evolutionary rates (sub/site/year) × 10−3(95% HPD*) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Best fit clock model | Strict clock | Uncorrelated lognormal molecular clock (ULCN) | |||||||
Constant size | Exponential growth | Bayesian skyride | Bayesian skyline | Constant size | Exponential growth | Bayesian skyride | Bayesian skyline | ||
2000-2001 | Strict-Skyride | 4.15 (2.97-5.44) | 3.49 (2.34-4.76) | 3.85 (2.98-4.80) | 4.12 (3.07-5.39) | 4.36 (2.96-5.98) | 4.36 (2.93-5.82) | 4.61 (3.25-6.08) | 4.65 (2.93-6.37) |
2001-2002 | Strict-Constant | 4.06 (3.03-5.17) | 3.24 (2.11-4.48) | 3.83 (2.92-4.78) | 3.72 (2.73-4.72) | 5.17 (3.63-6.74) | 4.86 (3.21-6.59) | 5.16 (3.58-6.63) | 5.48 (3.80-7.18) |
2002-2003 | Strict-Exponential | 2.51 (1.87-3.26) | 2.34 (1.68-3.09) | 2.29 (1.68-2.93) | 2.47 (1.81-3.13) | 2.52 (1.78-3.29) | 2.97 (2.01-3.94) | 2.79 (1.85-3.87) | 2.61 (1.77-3.49) |
2003-2004 | Strict-Constant | 4.31 (3.38-5.23) | 4.15 (3.31-5.00) | 4.19 (3.28-5.12) | 4.21 (3.24-5.13) | 4.83 (3.76-5.93) | 4.84 (3.7-6.22) | 1.04 (0.01-5.02) | 4.86 (3.38-6.60) |
2004-2005 | Strict-Skyride | 6.81 (5.69-7.95) | 6.88 (5.66-8.03) | 6.63 (5.73-7.56) | 6.70 (5.69-7.67) | 8.99 (6.69-11.08) | 7.83 (6.31-10) | 7.15 (5.55-8.46) | 7.37 (4.20-9.98) |
2005-2006 | Strict-Exponential | 3.55 (2.94-4.17) | 3.62 (3.09-4.19) | 3.85 (2.5-5.14) | 3.14 (2.03-3.92) | 3.52 (2.73-4.44) | 4.31 (3.27-5.38) | 4.03 (1.25-5.69) | 3.44 (1.29-4.53) |
2006-2007 | UCLN-Exponential | 4.18 (3.28-5.17) | 3.76 (2.59-4.68) | 4.07 (2.8-5.45) | 3.41 (2.28-4.47) | 5.72 (3.78-7.44) | 5.48 (3.99-6.92) | 4.83 (1.25-5.69) | 5.61 (2.20-8.40) |
2007-2008 | Strict-Skyline | 4.37 (3.29-5.56) | 4.19 (3.06-5.37) | 4.52 (3.4-5.62) | 4.66 (3.63-5.81) | 4.08 (2.76-5.55) | 4.58 (3.04-6.27) | 4.96 (3.63-6.44) | 5.01 (3.22-7.13) |
2008-2009 | Strict-Exponential | 4.91 (3.64-6.12) | 4.84 (3.58-6.07) | 5.03 (3.85-6.26) | 4.74 (3.57-6.02) | 5.98 (4.04-8.06) | 6.33 (3.94-8.79) | 7.31 (4.72-10.08) | 6.44 (4.12-8.96) |
1996-2004 | UCLN-Exponential | 3.24 (2.92-3.60) | 3.19 (2.86-3.51) | 4.03 (3.58-4.52) | 3.63 (3.13-4.10) | 3.54 (3.08-3.97) | 3.77 (3.33-4.22) | 4.03 (3.57-4.51) | 3.63 (3.13-4.10) |
2005-2011 | Strict-Constant | 4.39 (4.03-4.76) | 4.44 (4.06-4.80) | 4.35 (3.88-4.81) | 4.45 (4.05-4.87) | 4.28 (3.67-4.84) | 4.26 (3.15-5.11) | 4.30 (3.82-4.78) | 3.95 (3.58-4.28) |