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Table 5 Average final number of cases for realizations leading to an attack rate higher than 10 % , for different mitigation strategies

From: Mitigation of infectious disease at school: targeted class closure vs school closure

Closure strategy

Targeted

Targeted

Whole

(threshold, duration)

class

grade

school

No closure

187 [161,192]

187 [161,192]

187 [161,192]

3, 24 h

173 [142,196]

176 [155,200]

181 [153,200]

3, 48 h

155 [114,185]

157 [69,191]

178 [143,203]

3, 72 h

131 [52,170]

137 [40,188]

169 [37,200]

3, 96 h

118 [100,182]

120 [28,182]

161 [30,200]

3, 120 h

103 [35,164]

100 [29,174]

145 [28,196]

3, 144 h

102 [39,161]

89 [28,173]

126 [26,196]

2, 24 h

176 [145,201]

177 [149,202]

183 [160,203]

2, 48 h

151 [89,186]

158 [89,196]

180 [155,201]

2, 72 h

118 [37,177]

136 [32,189]

179 [149,201]

2, 96 h

111 [30,180]

120 [31,191]

176 [141,202]

2, 120 h

102 [27,168]

106 [27,188]

176 [155,198]

2, 144 h

93 [28,167]

94 [27,185]

174 [88,205]

  1. The baseline case given by the simple isolation of symptomatic children is indicated as “No closure”. In square brackets we provide the 5th and 95th percentiles. Parameter values: β = 3.5 · 10-4 s -1, β com = 1.4 · 10-8 s -1, 1/ μ = 2 days, 1/ γ = 4 days, p A = 1/3.