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Table 5 Average final number of cases for realizations leading to an attack rate higher than 10 % , for different mitigation strategies

From: Mitigation of infectious disease at school: targeted class closure vs school closure

Closure strategy Targeted Targeted Whole
(threshold, duration) class grade school
No closure 187 [161,192] 187 [161,192] 187 [161,192]
3, 24 h 173 [142,196] 176 [155,200] 181 [153,200]
3, 48 h 155 [114,185] 157 [69,191] 178 [143,203]
3, 72 h 131 [52,170] 137 [40,188] 169 [37,200]
3, 96 h 118 [100,182] 120 [28,182] 161 [30,200]
3, 120 h 103 [35,164] 100 [29,174] 145 [28,196]
3, 144 h 102 [39,161] 89 [28,173] 126 [26,196]
2, 24 h 176 [145,201] 177 [149,202] 183 [160,203]
2, 48 h 151 [89,186] 158 [89,196] 180 [155,201]
2, 72 h 118 [37,177] 136 [32,189] 179 [149,201]
2, 96 h 111 [30,180] 120 [31,191] 176 [141,202]
2, 120 h 102 [27,168] 106 [27,188] 176 [155,198]
2, 144 h 93 [28,167] 94 [27,185] 174 [88,205]
  1. The baseline case given by the simple isolation of symptomatic children is indicated as “No closure”. In square brackets we provide the 5th and 95th percentiles. Parameter values: β = 3.5 · 10-4 s -1, β com = 1.4 · 10-8 s -1, 1/ μ = 2 days, 1/ γ = 4 days, p A = 1/3.