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Table 5 Risk factors for death stratified by time since starting TB treatment (includes first and retreatment episodes up to six months)

From: Timing, rates, and causes of death in a large South African tuberculosis programme

    First Month Later months (2–6)
  Category n Number of deaths Unadjusted IRR (95% CI) p -value Adjusted # p -value Number of deaths Unadjusted IRR (95% CI) p -value Adjusted # p -value
IRR (95% CI) IRR (95% CI)
Age at diagnosis* <35 years 524 8 1.0 0.06 1.0 0.17 27 1.0 <0.01 1.0 <0.01
35-44 years 1572 38 1.59 (0.74-3.41)   1.57 (0.73-3.37)   144 1.70 (1.12-2.59)   1.53 (1.01-2.33)  
45-54 years 1731 58 2.19 (1.05-4.59)   1.92 (0.91-4.05)   182 1.98 (1.31-2.98)   1.77 (1.17-2.68)  
>54 years 335 13 2.53 (1.05-6.10)   2.43 (1.00-5.88)   39 2.65 (1.65-4.27)   2.68 (1.66-4.33)  
TB episode First 3170 71 1.0 <0.01 1.0 <0.01 237 1.0 <0.01 1.0 <0.01
> = 1 previous 992 46 2.10 (1.45-3.04)   2.20 (1.49-3.26)   155 1.63 (1.33-2.00)   1.46 (1.17-1.82)  
HIV/ART status* Negative/unknown 1341 12 1.0 <0.01 1.0 <0.01 25 1.0 <0.01 1.0 <0.01
Positive: ART 652 29 5.06 (2.59-9.91)   3.17 (1.56-6.44)   77 6.37 (4.05-10.00)   6.02 (3.75-9.67)  
Positive: no ART 2169 76 3.97 (2.16-7.29)   3.59 (1.94-6.66)   290 7.71 (5.13-11.61)   7.80 (5.15-11.80)  
TB site Pulmonary 2393 77 1.0 0.02 1.0 <0.01 260 1.0 <0.01 1.0 <0.01
Extra-pulmonary 1535 30 0.60 (0.40-0.92)   0.54 (0.33-0.91)   115 0.69 (0.56-0.86)   0.57 (0.42-0.77)  
No data 234 10 1.35 (0.70-2.60)   1.41 (0.69-2.88)   17 0.68 (0.42-1.12)   0.76 (0.46-1.27)  
Year first diagnosed 1995-1998 742 9 1.0 <0.01 1.0 <0.01 58 1.0 <0.01 1.0 0.81
1999-2002 1177 24 1.69 (0.78-3.63)   1.81 (0.79-4.17)   129 1.47 (1.07-2.01)   1.18 (0.82-1.68)  
2003-2005 1198 46 3.21 (1.57-6.55)   3.75 (1.63-8.61)   118 1.36 (0.99-1.87)   1.14 (0.77-1.69)  
2006-2008 1043 38 3.05 (1.47-6.30)   3.97 (1.73-9.11)   87 1.18 (0.85-1.65)   1.14 (0.76-1.71)  
Certainty of diagnosis Confirmed 1009 10 1.0 <0.01 1.0 <0.01 84 1.0 0.07 1.0 <0.01
Probable 1074 32 3.05 (1.50-6.20)   3.38 (1.65-6.93)   102 1.17 (0.88-1.56)   1.17 (0.87-1.58)  
Possible 1120 56 5.15 (2.63-10.09)   6.28 (3.18-12.43)   134 1.56 (1.19-2.05)   1.73 (1.30-2.30)  
No data 959 19 2.01 (0.94-4.33)   9.06 (3.82-21.51)   72 0.95 (0.70-1.31)   2.51 (1.64-3.85)  
  1. *time-varying covariates.
  2. #Models were adjusted for all factors in the table.