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Table 5 Risk factors for death stratified by time since starting TB treatment (includes first and retreatment episodes up to six months)

From: Timing, rates, and causes of death in a large South African tuberculosis programme

   

First Month

Later months (2–6)

 

Category

n

Number of deaths

Unadjusted IRR (95% CI)

p -value

Adjusted #

p -value

Number of deaths

Unadjusted IRR (95% CI)

p -value

Adjusted #

p -value

IRR (95% CI)

IRR (95% CI)

Age at diagnosis*

<35 years

524

8

1.0

0.06

1.0

0.17

27

1.0

<0.01

1.0

<0.01

35-44 years

1572

38

1.59 (0.74-3.41)

 

1.57 (0.73-3.37)

 

144

1.70 (1.12-2.59)

 

1.53 (1.01-2.33)

 

45-54 years

1731

58

2.19 (1.05-4.59)

 

1.92 (0.91-4.05)

 

182

1.98 (1.31-2.98)

 

1.77 (1.17-2.68)

 

>54 years

335

13

2.53 (1.05-6.10)

 

2.43 (1.00-5.88)

 

39

2.65 (1.65-4.27)

 

2.68 (1.66-4.33)

 

TB episode

First

3170

71

1.0

<0.01

1.0

<0.01

237

1.0

<0.01

1.0

<0.01

> = 1 previous

992

46

2.10 (1.45-3.04)

 

2.20 (1.49-3.26)

 

155

1.63 (1.33-2.00)

 

1.46 (1.17-1.82)

 

HIV/ART status*

Negative/unknown

1341

12

1.0

<0.01

1.0

<0.01

25

1.0

<0.01

1.0

<0.01

Positive: ART

652

29

5.06 (2.59-9.91)

 

3.17 (1.56-6.44)

 

77

6.37 (4.05-10.00)

 

6.02 (3.75-9.67)

 

Positive: no ART

2169

76

3.97 (2.16-7.29)

 

3.59 (1.94-6.66)

 

290

7.71 (5.13-11.61)

 

7.80 (5.15-11.80)

 

TB site

Pulmonary

2393

77

1.0

0.02

1.0

<0.01

260

1.0

<0.01

1.0

<0.01

Extra-pulmonary

1535

30

0.60 (0.40-0.92)

 

0.54 (0.33-0.91)

 

115

0.69 (0.56-0.86)

 

0.57 (0.42-0.77)

 

No data

234

10

1.35 (0.70-2.60)

 

1.41 (0.69-2.88)

 

17

0.68 (0.42-1.12)

 

0.76 (0.46-1.27)

 

Year first diagnosed

1995-1998

742

9

1.0

<0.01

1.0

<0.01

58

1.0

<0.01

1.0

0.81

1999-2002

1177

24

1.69 (0.78-3.63)

 

1.81 (0.79-4.17)

 

129

1.47 (1.07-2.01)

 

1.18 (0.82-1.68)

 

2003-2005

1198

46

3.21 (1.57-6.55)

 

3.75 (1.63-8.61)

 

118

1.36 (0.99-1.87)

 

1.14 (0.77-1.69)

 

2006-2008

1043

38

3.05 (1.47-6.30)

 

3.97 (1.73-9.11)

 

87

1.18 (0.85-1.65)

 

1.14 (0.76-1.71)

 

Certainty of diagnosis

Confirmed

1009

10

1.0

<0.01

1.0

<0.01

84

1.0

0.07

1.0

<0.01

Probable

1074

32

3.05 (1.50-6.20)

 

3.38 (1.65-6.93)

 

102

1.17 (0.88-1.56)

 

1.17 (0.87-1.58)

 

Possible

1120

56

5.15 (2.63-10.09)

 

6.28 (3.18-12.43)

 

134

1.56 (1.19-2.05)

 

1.73 (1.30-2.30)

 

No data

959

19

2.01 (0.94-4.33)

 

9.06 (3.82-21.51)

 

72

0.95 (0.70-1.31)

 

2.51 (1.64-3.85)

 
  1. *time-varying covariates.
  2. #Models were adjusted for all factors in the table.