Table 2 Model parameters base case values and ranges used in the sensitivity analyses

Annual number of patients ≥18 years coming to French EDs

12,757,000

12,223,000

13,243,000

[12]

Cohort size (wounded patients ≥18 years coming to the French EDs)

1,658,000

1,589,000

1,722,000

Calculus based on [13] and [12]

Pr wound│ED consultation

13.0%

10.0%

15.0%

[13]

Pr tetanus-prone wound│wound

31.0%

18.1%

77.3%

[5],[6],[14]-[17]

Pr highly tetanus-prone wound│wound

4.9%

[6]

Pr patients ≥65 years in the cohort

16.6%

10.0%

20.0%

[8],[12]

Pr men in the cohort

70.3%

45.7%

75.0%

[5],[6],[8],[15],[16]

Life expectancy

(Pr men in the cohort ×Average men's life expectancy of the age group) + ((1- Pr men in the cohort)×Average women's life expectancy of the age group)

 18 to 64 years

40.9

38.9

44.7

[18]

 ≥65 years

9.1

8.4

10.4

Pr vaccination card

11.9%

0.0%

19.6%

[5],[14],[16]

Medical interview sensitivity

62.0%

38.0%

65.0%

[4]-[8]

Medical interview specificity

79.0%

66.0%

96.0%

[4]-[8]

TQS sensitivity

69.0%

55.0%

96.0%

[4]-[8],[19],[20]

TQS specificity

98.0%

87.2%

100.0%

[4]-[8],[19],[20]

Seroprevalence (≥0.1 IU/mL)

 18 to 64 years

94.6%

84.0%

96.6%

[5]

 ≥65 years

76.6%

72.2%

83.3%

[21]

Pr of being up-to-date with booster shots

 18 and 64 years (last booster less than 20 years ago)

71.2%

70.0%

81.0%

[22]

 ≥65 years (last booster less than 10 years ago)

44.0%

44.0%

77.0%

[11]

Pr of booster being assessed as up-to-date

(Medical interview sensitivity×Pr up-to-date with boosters) + ((1-Medical interview specificity)

×(1-Pr up-to-date with boosters))

 18 to 64 years

50.2%

 ≥65 years

39.0%

Pr positive TQS

(TQS sensitivity×Seroprevalence) + ((1-TQS specificity)×(1-Seroprevalence))

 18 and 64 years

65.7%

 ≥65 years

53.3%

Pr of patient reporting having a complete primary vaccination

69.9%

71.5%

50.4%

[5],[15]

Medical interview PPV

Pr up-to-date with boosters×Medical interview sensitivity/((Pr up-to-date with boosters×Medical interview sensitivity) + ((1-Pr up-to-date with boosters)×(1-Medical interview specificity)))

 18 to 64 years

88.0%

 ≥65 years

69.9%

Medical interview NPV

(1-Pr up-to-date with boosters)×Medical interview specificity/(((1-Pr up-to-date with boosters)

×Medical interview specificity) + (Pr up-to-date with boosters×(1-Medical interview sensitivity)))

 18 to 64 years

45.7%

 ≥65 years

72.6%

TQS PPV

Seroprevalence×TQS sensitivity/((Seroprevalence×TQS sensitivity) + ((1-Seroprevalence)×(1-TQS specificity)))

 18 to 64 years

99.8%

 ≥65 years

99.1%

TQS NPV

(1-Seroprevalence)×TQS specificity/(((1-Seroprevalence)×TQS specificity ) + (Seroprevalence×(1-TQS sensitivity)))

 18 to 64 years

15.3%

 ≥65 years

49.1%

TIG relative risk on tetanus occurrence

0

Institut de veille sanitaire expert assumption

Tetanus vaccine relative risk on tetanus occurrence

1

Institut de veille sanitaire expert assumption

Pr hospitalization│tetanus case

100%

[23]-[26]

Pr death│tetanus case

 <70 years

10.0%

0%

100.0%

[23]-[26]

 ≥70 years

27.2%

0%

42.0%

[23]-[26]

Pr sequelae│surviving tetanus case

31.6%

18.8%

50.0%

[23]-[26]

c TQS (€ 2012)

€ 4.7

€ 4

€ 5

[9],[17]

c tetanus vaccine (Revaxis®: 0.5 mL syringe) (€ 2012)

€ 10.0

€ 3

€ 15

[27]

c human TIG (Gammatetanos®: 250 IU/2 mL syringe) (€ 2012)

€ 34,9

€ 30

€ 40

[27]

c hospitalization tetanus case (€ 2012)

€ 209,000

€ 150,000

€ 250,000

[28]

c sequelae of a tetanus case (€ 2012)

€ 5,663

€ 5,000

€ 6,000

[28]