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Table 3 Predicted effect of three interventions (A, B, C) on a cohort of TB patients (%)

From: How to optimize tuberculosis case finding: explorations for Indonesia with a health system model

    With intervention
Scenario Model outcome No intervention A B C
Baselinea Death 16.6 14.2 15.5 16.5
  Partially cured 19.6 20.7 20.1 11.5
  Cured 52.8 55.7 54.1 61.0
  Spontaneous recovery 11.1 9.5 10.3 11.0
More important alternative health sectorb Death 18.1 15.8 16.6 18.0
  Partially cured 18.5 19.6 19.2 11.1
  Cured 51.2 54.1 53.1 58.9
  Spontaneous recovery 12.1 10.5 11.1 12.0
  1. A: strategy to reduce the proportion of TB patients who never seek care (Never seeking compartment) by 50%;
  2. B: strategy to reduce patients' delay (i.e. reduce duration in Not seeking care compartment) by 50%;
  3. C: strategy to refer all TB suspect patients from non-DOTS services to DOTS services (from Non-DOTS services to DOTS lab1 compartment).
  4. a: Simulation using experts estimated parameters
  5. b: Simulation using adjusted parameters in the alternative health sector, i.e. if 20% of the flow of TB patients to the DOTS and Non-DOTS services compartments now move to the Alternative services compartment (i.e. the proportion of TB patients move from Not seeking care compartment to Alternative, Non-DOTS, and DOTS services compartments are 36%, 24%, and 40% respectively), and patients cannot go directly to the DOTS and Non-DOTS services.