Identification and validation of clinical predictors for the risk of neurological involvement in children with hand, foot, and mouth disease in Sarawak

Table 3 The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the risk factors.

Risk factors that were present	Presented within the first 2 days of febrile illness				Presented on the 3rd or later day of febrile illness
	Sensitivity	Specificity	PPV	NPV	Sensitivity	Specificity	PPV	NPV
Both peak temperature ≥ 38.5°C and history of lethargy	28% (48/174) [23–33%]	89% (125/140) [86–92%]	76% (48/63) [71–81%]	50% (125/251) [44–56%]	22% (17/76) [15–29%]	89% (41/46) [83–95%]	77% (17/22) [70–84%]	41% (41/100) [32–50%]
Peak temperature ≥ 38.5°C &/or history of lethargy	86% (150/174) [82–90%]	43% (60/140) [38–48%]	65% (150/230) [60–70%]	71% (60/84) [66–76%]	75% (57/76) [67–83%]	59% (27/46) [50–68%]	75% (57/76) [67–83%]	59% (27/46) [50–68%]

(%, proportion, [95% confidence interval]) in predicting CSF pleocytosis in the 436 children with suspected CNS involvement seen in the 2006 outbreak
Note:
CSF: Cerebrospinal fluid
CNS: Central nervous system
Sensitivity = The proportion of children with CSF pleocytosis that are correctly identified by the presence of the risk factors
Specificity = The proportion of children without CSF pleocytosis that are correctly identified by the absence of the risk factors
Positive predictive value (PPV) = The proportion of individuals with the risk factors that have CSF pleocytosis
Negative predictive value (NPV) = The proportion of individuals without the risk factors that do not have CSF pleocytosis

ISSN: 1471-2334