Skip to main content

Table 4 Probability of freedom from poliovirus infection in Australia given continuous negative surveillance findings based on WHO-recommended notification and stool sampling practices

From: An evaluation of the sensitivity of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance for poliovirus infection in Australia

  Probability of freedom (%)
Design prevalence 10-5 10-6
Time period No age effect Age effect No age effect Age effect
6 months 83.0 (74.3-90.2) 94.0 (86.7-97.7) 53.4 (51.6-55.2) 56.3 (53.8-59.1)
1 year 95.4 (88.7-98.5) 99.2 (96.9-99.8) 56.7 (52.7-60.2) 62.3 (57.2-67.4)
2 years 99.1 (96.5-99.9) 99.7 (98.5-100.0) 62.8 (55.0-69.4) 72.6 (63.1-80.7)
3 years 99.4 (97.2-99.9) 99.7 (98.6-100.0) 68.4 (56.9-77.1) 80.5 (68.2-89.0)
4 years 99.4 (97.2-100.0) 99.7 (98.6-100.0) 73.2 (58.7-83.1) 86.0 (72.0-93.8)
5 years 99.4 (97.2-100.0) 99.7 (98.6-100.0) 77.3 (60.2-87.6) 89.7 (75.0-96.3)
10 years 99.4 (97.2-100.0) 99.7 (98.6-100.0) 88.7 (65.3-96.9) 95.4 (81.1-99.4)
20 years 99.4 (97.2-100.0) 99.7 (98.6-100.0) 92.7 (68.2-99.3) 96.0 (82.1-99.7)
  1. Median (5th-95th percentile), probability of introduction Beta(1,361)