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Table 2 Probability of freedom from poliovirus infection in Australia given continuous negative surveillance findings

From: An evaluation of the sensitivity of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance for poliovirus infection in Australia

  Probability of freedom (%)
Design prevalence 10-5 10-6
Time period No age effect Age effect No age effect Age effect
6 months 61.9 (57.3-68.7) 70.2 (63.2-78.3) 50.1 (49.2-51.6) 51.6 (50.0-52.9)
1 year 72.2 (63.8-81.2) 84.2 (74.1-92.4) 51.4 (48.0-53.2) 53.2 (49.7-55.7)
2 years 86.2 (74.6-94.3) 95.6 (87.5-98.9) 52.8 (45.9-56.3) 56.2 (49.0-61.2)
3 years 92.8 (81.8-98.1) 98.0 (92.5-99.7) 54.0 (43.9-59.3) 59.0 (48.4-66.3)
4 years 95.6 (85.9-99.1) 98.6 (93.9-99.8) 55.3 (42.1-62.2) 61.8 (47.8-71.0)
5 years 96.9 (88.0-99.5) 98.7 (94.2-99.9) 56.5 (40.4-65.0) 64.3 (47.3-75.1)
10 years 97.8 (89.9-99.8) 98.8 (94.4-99.9) 61.9 (33.6-76.9) 74.5 (45.3-89.0)
20 years 97.8 (90.0-99.9) 98.8 (94.4-99.9) 69.3 (25.1-90.0) 83.8 (43.1-97.0)
  1. Median (5th-95th percentile), probability of introduction Beta(1,361)