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Table 1 Forecasted total attack and mortality rates for two pandemic profiles (R0, max = 1.5 and GI = 2 versus R0, max = 2.2 and GI = 3.1)

From: Potential for a global dynamic of Influenza A (H1N1)

Scenario Total attack rate (%) Total attack rate North (%) Total attack rate South (%) Total attack rate Tropics (%) Mortality rate (%)
  R0, max = 1.5
GI = 2
R0, max = 2.2
GI = 3.1
R0, max = 1.5
GI = 2
R0, max = 2.2
GI = 3.1
R0, max = 1.5
GI = 2
R0, max = 2.2
GI = 3.1
R0, max = 1.5
GI = 2
R0, max = 2.2
GI = 3.1
R0, max = 1.5
GI = 2
R0, max = 2.2
GI = 3.1
No vaccination 46 77 62 86 58 86 19 62 0.14 0.23
Vaccination in developed countries (14%) 37 71 47 74 55 86 17 62 0.11 0.21
Vaccination in all countries (30%) 9 51 11 45 32 86 2 52 0.03 0.15
Vaccination in all countries (50%) 4 43 1 31 32 86 2 52 0.01 0.13
  1. Means of attack and mortality rates in the absence of any intervention and under different vaccination scenarios are calculated on 500 simulation runs for each scenario.