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Table 3 Epidemiologic Natural History Model Parameters

From: Epidemiologic natural history and clinical management of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Disease: a critical and systematic review of the literature in the development of an HPV dynamic transmission model

Parameter

Estimate

Progression in the presence of HPV 16/18, % per year

 

   Normal to CIN1[43]

9.4

   Normal to CIN 1 to CIN 2 [41, 43]

5.8

   Normal to CIN 1 to CIN 2 to CIN 3 [41, 43]

3.5

   CIN1 to CIN 2*

13.6

   CIN 2 to CIN3 (severe dysplasia) [49, 65]

14.0

   CIN 3 (severe dysplasia) to CIN 3 (CIS) [49, 68]

43.0

   CIN 3 (CIS) to LCC

4.1

   LCC to RCC [7, 9, 22, 23]

10.0

   RCC to DCC [22]

30.0

Progression in the presence of HPV 6/11, % per year

 

   Normal to CIN1 [43]

8.5

   Normal to CIN 1 to CIN 2 [43]

1.9

   Normal to CIN 1 to CIN 2 to CIN 3 [43, 78, 79]

0.0

   CIN 1 to CIN2 *

0.0

   Normal to genital warts [41]

57

Mean HPV infection duration with CIN absent, years

 

   HPV 16/18 infection [42]

1.2

   HPV 6/11 infection [42]

0.7

Duration of acquired immunity following HPV infection

10 years to Lifelong

Regression of HPV 16/18+ disease, % per year

 

   CIN1 to Negative/HPV 16/18 [40]*

32.9

   CIN 2 to Negative/HPV 16/18 [49, 65, 85]

21.0

   CIN 2 to CIN 1 [65]

13.3

   CIN 3 (severe dysplasia) to Negative/HPV 16/18 [49]

11.0

   CIN 3 (severe dysplasia) to CIN 1 [49, 65]

3.0

   CIN 3 (severe dysplasia) to CIN 2 [49, 65]

3.0

Regression of HPV 6/11+ disease, % per year

 

   CIN1 to Negative/HPV 6/11*

55.2

   Genital warts to Negative/HPV 6/11 [41, 88]

87.5

Age and stage-specific cervical cancer mortality, 1997–2002, % per year [69]

 

   for LCC

 

15–29 years

0.7

30–39 years

0.6

40–49 years

0.8

50–59 years

1.9

60–69 years

4.2

≥ 70 years

11.6

   for RCC

 

15–29 years

13.4

30–39 years

8.9

40–49 years

11.0

50–59 years

10.1

60–69 years

17.6

≥ 70 years

28.6

   for DCC

 

15–29 years

42.9

30–39 years

41.0

40–49 years

46.7

50–59 years

52.7

60–69 years

54.6

≥ 70 years

70.3

  1. CIN = cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; CIS = carcinoma in situ; DCC = distant cervical cancer; HPV = human papillomavirus; LCC = localized cervical cancer; RCC = regional cervical cancer
  2. *R. Insinga, unpublished data.