Figure 2

Baseline simulations. Timing for initial case for R ₀ = 1.4 (green), R ₀ = 1.7 (blue), R ₀ = 2 (red) and R ₀ = 3 (violet) in the baseline scenarios. Histograms are based on 100 simulations each. b Expected case incidence over time (solid lines) and 95% confidence intervals (shaded regions) based on 100 simulations for each scenario. Colors as in a. The black time window indicate a reasonable time interval for the availability of a pandemic vaccine. c Cumulative clinical attack rate by age (colors as in a), compared with data on the 1918–19 pandemic [23] (black line). The vertical dashed lines identify the age classes, namely young, adults and elderly, defined for age-prioritization of the use of antivirals. d Expected excess mortality by age classes (colors as in a) as obtained by assuming two different age-specific case fatality rates, similar to those estimated for the 1918–19 pandemic in Copenhagen (solid lines) and for the 1969–70 pandemic in Italy (dashed lines). Note that in the latter case, the expected excess mortality in the younger age classes (0–64 years old) is very close to 0 for all the R ₀ values considered.