Figure 5

Combined intervention scheme. Number of outpatients expected during an influenza pandemic if antiviral distribution and contact reduction measures are implemented additionally to the isolation of cases. Parameter values are based on the InfluSim standard configuration [15] with R ₀ = 2.5, except those listed at the end of this legend and indicated by superscripts¹. The Figure shows the epidemic curves, varied by the "Day when contact reduction measures are initiated" (as indicated by the number next to the peak and at the right hand side of the bar chart). Antivirals are available for 10% of the population and are distributed from day zero². Contact reduction measures involve isolation of cases³ and social distancing⁴. Bars at the bottom of the graph illustrate begin and end antiviral intervention (dark bars) and contact reduction measures (light bars), respectively. The "Day when contact reduction measures are initiated" is model input, whereas the "Day when antivirals are used up" is model output. The epidemic without intervention is shown as a dashed curve. The curves for "7", "21", "35" and "49"⁵ are plotted in bold for purposes of visualization.¹:Parameter modifications are given in the following and terms in italics refer to terms in the InfluSim user interface. InfluSim output: N _i = cumulative proportion of the population infected, and N _o = cumulative proportion of outpatients in the population. ²: Antiviral availability: 10%. Treatment fraction: 100%, for both, Treatment of severe cases and Treatment of extremely sick cases. ³: Moderately sick cases: 10%, Severe cases (home): 20%, Severe cases (hospital): 30%. Range of days: see bar chart at the bottom of the graph. For "day 0", N _i = 53%, N _o = 18%. ⁴: Contact reduction by: 20%. Range of days: see bar chart at the bottom of the graph. ⁵: Yielding for scenarios up to "day 28": N _i = 53%, N _o = 18%, for "day 35": N _i = 55%, N _o = 18%, for "day 42": N _i = 60%, N _o = 20%, for "day49": N _i = 69%, N _o = 23%.