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Figure 3 | BMC Infectious Diseases

Figure 3

From: Influenza pandemic intervention planning using InfluSim: pharmaceutical and non- pharmaceutical interventions

Figure 3

Intervention with limited amounts of antivirals. Number of outpatients expected during a pandemic wave, varied by the availability of antivirals. Parameter values are based on the InfluSim standard configuration [15] with R 0 = 2.5, except those listed at the end of this legend and indicated by superscripts1. Antiviral availability ranges from 0% (no antivirals available, dashed curves2) to 10% (antivirals available for 10% of the population3) in steps of 1% (from left to right). The dashed curve shows the epidemic without intervention. Grey dotted lines represent the scenario where antivirals are available for the whole population4. Bars at the bottom of each graph indicate the period when antiviral treatment begins (model input) until stockpiles are used up (model output). A: Antivirals are available from day 0 5. B: Antivirals become available after three weeks6. The epidemic curves depart from the grey dotted line when antivirals are exhausted.1:Parameter modifications are given in the following and terms in italics refer to terms in the InfluSim user interface. InfluSim output: N i = cumulative proportion of the population infected, and N o = cumulative proportion of outpatients in the population. 2: Antiviral availability: 0%, yielding N i = 87%, N o = 29% for both, A and B. 3: Antiviral availability: 10%, yielding N i = 82%, N o = 27% for both, A and B. 4: Antiviral availability: 100%, yielding N i = 72%, N o = 24% for both, A and B. 5: Range of days: 0–80. 6: Range of days: 21–80.

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