Figure 2

Onset and sustainability of antiviral intervention. Number of outpatients expected during a pandemic wave, varied by day of onset when antivirals come into operation. Parameter values are based on the InfluSim standard configuration [15] with R ₀ = 2.5, except those listed at the end of this legend and indicated by superscripts¹. The dashed curve shows the epidemic without intervention². Antivirals are available for 5% of the population³ (black lines), compared to scenarios of full coverage⁴ (grey lines). The shaded areas under the curves represent the amounts of antivirals distributed and are identical for both scenarios. They are shown between onset of intervention and exhaustion. If antivirals are available at the beginning of the epidemic ("Intervention from day 0") they last for 45 days⁵. Antivirals last only for a shorter period, if coming into operation in later phases of the epidemic ("Intervention from day 30")⁶. ¹:Parameter modifications are given in the following and terms in italics refer to terms in the InfluSim user interface. InfluSim output: N _i = cumulative proportion of the population infected, and N _o = cumulative proportion of outpatients in the population. ²: Yielding N _i = 87%, N _o = 29%. ³: Antiviral availability: 5%, Treatment fraction: 100% for both, Treatment of severe cases and Treatment of extremely sick cases, yielding N _i = 84%, N _o = 28% for scenarios, "day 0" and "day 30". ⁴: Antiviral availability: 100%, Treatment fraction: 100% for both, Treatment of severe cases and Treatment of extremely sick cases, yielding N _i = 72%, N _o = 24% for "day 0" and N _i = 74%, N _o = 25% for "day 30". ⁵: Antiviral availability: 5%, Treatment fraction: 100%, Range of days: 0–80 for both, Treatment of severe cases and Treatment of extremely sick cases. ⁶: Antiviral availability: 5%, Treatment fraction: 100%, Range of days: 30–80 for both, Treatment of severe cases and Treatment of extremely sick cases.