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Figure 1 | BMC Infectious Diseases

Figure 1

From: Influenza pandemic intervention planning using InfluSim: pharmaceutical and non- pharmaceutical interventions

Figure 1

Comparison of different intervention schemes. Number of outpatients expected during a pandemic wave in a population of 100,000 citizens. Parameter values are based on the InfluSim standard configuration [15] with R 0 = 2.5, except those listed at the end of this legend and indicated by superscripts1. The dashed line represents an epidemic without intervention2. For the following four scenarios, interventions are initiated when infection is introduced (day 0). Isolation: moderately sick, severely sick and hospitalized cases are isolated3. Treatment: antivirals are available for 10% of the population and all severe and extremely sick cases receive antiviral treatment4. Under this intervention scheme, antivirals are used up on day 50. Contact reduction: involves isolation3 of cases and social distancing5. All interventions: combination of all three interventions6; under this intervention scheme, antivirals are used up on day 76, leading to a plateau in the epidemic curve. 1:Parameter modifications are given in the following and terms in italics refer to terms in the InfluSim user interface. InfluSim output: N i = cumulative proportion of the population infected, and N o = cumulative proportion of outpatients in the population. 2: yielding N i = 87%, N o = 29% 3: Moderately sick cases: 10%, Severe cases (home): 20%, Severe cases (hospital): 30%, yielding N i = 81%, N o = 27%. 4: Antivirals availability: 10%, Treatment fraction: 100% for both, Treatment of severe cases and Treatment of extremely sick cases, yielding N i = 82%, N o = 27%. 5: General reduction of contacts: Contact reduction by 10%. Combined with isolation of cases, this intervention scheme yields N i = 75%, N o = 25%. 6: yielding N i = 66%, N o = 22%.

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