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Table 2 Average observed incidence of reported cases (per 100,000 per year) versus predicted incidence of reported cases for the case of constant domestic (β ij = β ¯ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfKttLearuWrP9MDH5MBPbIqV92AaeXatLxBI9gBaebbnrfifHhDYfgasaacH8akY=wiFfYdH8Gipec8Eeeu0xXdbba9frFj0=OqFfea0dXdd9vqai=hGuQ8kuc9pgc9s8qqaq=dirpe0xb9q8qiLsFr0=vr0=vr0dc8meaabaqaciaacaGaaeqabaqabeGadaaakeaaiiGacuWFYoGygaqeaaaa@2E6C@ ij ) and travel (τ i = τ ¯ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfKttLearuWrP9MDH5MBPbIqV92AaeXatLxBI9gBaebbnrfifHhDYfgasaacH8akY=wiFfYdH8Gipec8Eeeu0xXdbba9frFj0=OqFfea0dXdd9vqai=hGuQ8kuc9pgc9s8qqaq=dirpe0xb9q8qiLsFr0=vr0=vr0dc8meaabaqaciaacaGaaeqabaqabeGadaaakeaaiiGacuWFepaDgaqeaaaa@2E90@ i ) transmission rates, and for the case of time-varying domestic (β ij = β ij (t)) and travel (τ i = τ i (t)) transmission rates, from 1980–1994.

From: Cohort effects in dynamic models and their impact on vaccination programmes: an example from Hepatitis A

  Average incidence of reported cases, 1980–1994
Age Class Observed Predicted, without cohort effect Predicted, with cohort effect
0–4 6.8 10.3 (1.4, 19.2) 7.4 (5.7, 11.6)
5–9 17.0 21.8 (3.3, 40.3) 15.7 (11.9, 23.9)
10–19 7.8 13.8 (4.6, 23.0) 9.6 (7.4, 12.1)
20–29 9.4 14.8 (2.8, 26.8) 9.8 (7.3, 13.8)
30–39 7.2 16.1 (1.4, 30.8) 9.4 (7.0, 13.4)
40–59 3.7 11.3 (1.9, 20.7) 4.0 (3.1, 5.3)
60+ 1.8 12.2 (0.8, 23.6) 2.2 (1.6, 3.2)
All ages 6.5 13.8 (2.2, 25.4) 7.5 (5.2, 10.7)
  1. The quantities in brackets represent 96% uncertainty intervals (see Methods).