Cohort effects in dynamic models and their impact on vaccination programmes: an example from Hepatitis A

BMC Infectious Diseases

Table 2 Average observed incidence of reported cases (per 100,000 per year) versus predicted incidence of reported cases for the case of constant domestic (β _ij= $β ¯ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfKttLearuWrP9MDH5MBPbIqV92AaeXatLxBI9gBaebbnrfifHhDYfgasaacH8akY=wiFfYdH8Gipec8Eeeu0xXdbba9frFj0=OqFfea0dXdd9vqai=hGuQ8kuc9pgc9s8qqaq=dirpe0xb9q8qiLsFr0=vr0=vr0dc8meaabaqaciaacaGaaeqabaqabeGadaaakeaaiiGacuWFYoGygaqeaaaa@2E6C@$ _ij) and travel (τ _i= $τ ¯ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfKttLearuWrP9MDH5MBPbIqV92AaeXatLxBI9gBaebbnrfifHhDYfgasaacH8akY=wiFfYdH8Gipec8Eeeu0xXdbba9frFj0=OqFfea0dXdd9vqai=hGuQ8kuc9pgc9s8qqaq=dirpe0xb9q8qiLsFr0=vr0=vr0dc8meaabaqaciaacaGaaeqabaqabeGadaaakeaaiiGacuWFepaDgaqeaaaa@2E90@$ _i) transmission rates, and for the case of time-varying domestic (β _ij= β _ij(t)) and travel (τ _i= τ _i(t)) transmission rates, from 1980–1994.

	Average incidence of reported cases, 1980–1994
Age Class	Observed	Predicted, without cohort effect	Predicted, with cohort effect
0–4	6.8	10.3 (1.4, 19.2)	7.4 (5.7, 11.6)
5–9	17.0	21.8 (3.3, 40.3)	15.7 (11.9, 23.9)
10–19	7.8	13.8 (4.6, 23.0)	9.6 (7.4, 12.1)
20–29	9.4	14.8 (2.8, 26.8)	9.8 (7.3, 13.8)
30–39	7.2	16.1 (1.4, 30.8)	9.4 (7.0, 13.4)
40–59	3.7	11.3 (1.9, 20.7)	4.0 (3.1, 5.3)
60+	1.8	12.2 (0.8, 23.6)	2.2 (1.6, 3.2)
All ages	6.5	13.8 (2.2, 25.4)	7.5 (5.2, 10.7)

ISSN: 1471-2334