Table 2 Average observed incidence of reported cases (per 100,000 per year) versus predicted incidence of reported cases for the case of constant domestic (β ij = ij ) and travel (τ i = i ) transmission rates, and for the case of time-varying domestic (β ij = β ij (t)) and travel (τ i = τ i (t)) transmission rates, from 1980–1994.
|  | Average incidence of reported cases, 1980–1994 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
Age Class | Observed | Predicted, without cohort effect | Predicted, with cohort effect |
0–4 | 6.8 | 10.3 (1.4, 19.2) | 7.4 (5.7, 11.6) |
5–9 | 17.0 | 21.8 (3.3, 40.3) | 15.7 (11.9, 23.9) |
10–19 | 7.8 | 13.8 (4.6, 23.0) | 9.6 (7.4, 12.1) |
20–29 | 9.4 | 14.8 (2.8, 26.8) | 9.8 (7.3, 13.8) |
30–39 | 7.2 | 16.1 (1.4, 30.8) | 9.4 (7.0, 13.4) |
40–59 | 3.7 | 11.3 (1.9, 20.7) | 4.0 (3.1, 5.3) |
60+ | 1.8 | 12.2 (0.8, 23.6) | 2.2 (1.6, 3.2) |
All ages | 6.5 | 13.8 (2.2, 25.4) | 7.5 (5.2, 10.7) |