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Table 4 Predictive model showing probability of transmission for index patients with different combinations of risk factors

From: Clinical and epidemiological predictors of transmission in Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)

Risk factor combination, sorted by decreasing probability of transmission Total index patients in group Cumulative % of all patients Predicted probability of transmission Expected no. with transmission Observed no. with transmission
Delayed isolation + Admitted non-isolation + lactate dehydrogenase >650 IU/L 7 7.1% 0.969 6.78 6
Delayed isolation + Admitted non-isolation 2 9.2% 0.867 1.73 2
Admitted non-isolation + lactate dehydrogenase >650 IU/L 3 12.2% 0.828 2.48 3
Delayed isolation + lactate dehydrogenase >650 IU/L 6 18.4% 0.565 3.39 3
Admitted non-isolation only Nil 18.4% 0.504 - -
Delayed isolation only 19 37.8% 0.215 4.09 5
Lactate dehydrogenase >650 IU/L only 8 45.9% 0.168 1.34 2
No risk factors 53 100.0% 0.041 2.17 1