Table 4 Predictive model showing probability of transmission for index patients with different combinations of risk factors
From: Clinical and epidemiological predictors of transmission in Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
Risk factor combination, sorted by decreasing probability of transmission | Total index patients in group | Cumulative % of all patients | Predicted probability of transmission | Expected no. with transmission | Observed no. with transmission |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Delayed isolation + Admitted non-isolation + lactate dehydrogenase >650 IU/L | 7 | 7.1% | 0.969 | 6.78 | 6 |
Delayed isolation + Admitted non-isolation | 2 | 9.2% | 0.867 | 1.73 | 2 |
Admitted non-isolation + lactate dehydrogenase >650 IU/L | 3 | 12.2% | 0.828 | 2.48 | 3 |
Delayed isolation + lactate dehydrogenase >650 IU/L | 6 | 18.4% | 0.565 | 3.39 | 3 |
Admitted non-isolation only | Nil | 18.4% | 0.504 | - | - |
Delayed isolation only | 19 | 37.8% | 0.215 | 4.09 | 5 |
Lactate dehydrogenase >650 IU/L only | 8 | 45.9% | 0.168 | 1.34 | 2 |
No risk factors | 53 | 100.0% | 0.041 | 2.17 | 1 |