Table 3 Sensitivity analysis of estimated attack rates (AR) among children.
From: A super-spreading ewe infects hundreds with Q fever at a farmers' market in Germany
Most likely scenario | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 | Scenario 5 | Scenario 6 | Scenario 7 | Scenario 8 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total number of visitors | 3000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 5000 | 5000 | 5000 | 5000 |
% adult visitors | 83% | 60% | 60% | 90% | 90% | 60% | 60% | 90% | 90% |
Number of adult visitors at farmers market | 2490 | 1200 | 1200 | 1800 | 1800 | 3000 | 3000 | 4500 | 4500 |
Estimated AR (adults) | 20% | 15% | 30% | 15% | 30% | 15% | 30% | 15% | 30% |
Estimated number of ill adults | 498 | 180 | 360 | 270 | 540 | 450 | 900 | 675 | 1350 |
Number of reported adults | 291 | 291 | 291 | 291 | 291 | 291 | 291 | 291 | 291 |
Proportion of reported adults | 58% | 100% | 81% | 100% | 54% | 65% | 32% | 43% | 22% |
Number of children at farmers market | 510 | 800 | 800 | 200 | 200 | 2000 | 2000 | 500 | 500 |
Number of reported children | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Estimated number of ill children | 14 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 12 | 25 | 19 | 37 |
Estimated AR (children) | 2,7% | 1,0% | 1,2% | 4,0% | 7,4% | 0,6% | 1,2% | 3,7% | 7,4% |
Estimated total diseased | 512 | 299 | 370 | 299 | 555 | 462 | 925 | 694 | 1387 |