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Table 3 Sensitivity analysis of estimated attack rates (AR) among children.

From: A super-spreading ewe infects hundreds with Q fever at a farmers' market in Germany

  Most likely scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario 8
Total number of visitors 3000 2000 2000 2000 2000 5000 5000 5000 5000
% adult visitors 83% 60% 60% 90% 90% 60% 60% 90% 90%
Number of adult visitors at farmers market 2490 1200 1200 1800 1800 3000 3000 4500 4500
Estimated AR (adults) 20% 15% 30% 15% 30% 15% 30% 15% 30%
Estimated number of ill adults 498 180 360 270 540 450 900 675 1350
Number of reported adults 291 291 291 291 291 291 291 291 291
Proportion of reported adults 58% 100% 81% 100% 54% 65% 32% 43% 22%
Number of children at farmers market 510 800 800 200 200 2000 2000 500 500
Number of reported children 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Estimated number of ill children 14 8 10 8 15 12 25 19 37
Estimated AR (children) 2,7% 1,0% 1,2% 4,0% 7,4% 0,6% 1,2% 3,7% 7,4%
Estimated total diseased 512 299 370 299 555 462 925 694 1387
  1. The total number of visitors (line 1) is varied between 2000 and 5000, the proportion of adult visitors (line 2) is varied between 60% and 90% and the estimated AR among adults (line 4) is varied between 15% and 30% yielding 8 different scenarios; for further comments on calculation steps: see text.