Figure 2

Data augmentation strategy to estimate transmission parameters of S. pneumoniae from the longitudinal follow-up of pneumococcal carriage in schools. The observed data consist of the times when swabs are collected in the school. The data are augmented with the times of colonization/decolonization. In the MCMC algorithm, augmented periods of carriage may be added/suppressed, split/combined; and the times of colonization/decolonization may change.