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Table 1 Projected future number of vCJD cases (MLE and 95% prediction interval) based on fitting to the vCJD case data alone and to the case data and prevalence data simultaneously.

From: Updated projections of future vCJD deaths in the UK

  vCJD case data alone vCJD case data and prevalence data simultaneously
2003–2005 20 (3–70) 28 (4–72)
2003–2008 40 (8–138) 60 (9–152)
2003–2080 40 (9–540) 100 (10–2,600)
Fit of the model (-2LnL) 18.7 26.6
Goodness-of-fit p-value 0.29 0.32