Table 1 Projected future number of vCJD cases (MLE and 95% prediction interval) based on fitting to the vCJD case data alone and to the case data and prevalence data simultaneously.
vCJD case data alone | vCJD case data and prevalence data simultaneously | |
|---|---|---|
2003–2005 | 20 (3–70) | 28 (4–72) |
2003–2008 | 40 (8–138) | 60 (9–152) |
2003–2080 | 40 (9–540) | 100 (10–2,600) |
Fit of the model (-2LnL) | 18.7 | 26.6 |
Goodness-of-fit p-value | 0.29 | 0.32 |