Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature

Biggerstaff, Matthew; Cauchemez, Simon; Reed, Carrie; Gambhir, Manoj; Finelli, Lyn

doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480

Table 5 Reproduction numbers from seasonal influenza epidemics

From: Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature

Year(s)	Type/Subtype	Study population	Mean GT/SI^a	Reproduction number (R)	95% CI^b	Basic or effective	Case definition	Reference	Year published
1889–1890	H3N8?	USA & Europe	2.6	2.10	1.9–2.4	Basic	Unconfirmed deaths	[101]	2010
1948–1949	H1N1	Canada	4.1	1.30		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[25]	2006
1949–1950	H1N1	Canada	4.1	1.50		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[25]	2006
1950–1951	H1N1	Canada & UK	4.1	2.00	1.9–2.5	Effective	Unconfirmed deaths	[25]	2006
1958–1973	H2N2; H3N2; B	United Kingdom	4.48	3.9–7.1		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[102]	1979
1972–2002	H1N1/H3N2/B	Australia	5.5	1.30		Effective	Unconfirmed deaths	[103]	2008
1972–2002	H1N1/H3N2/B	France	5.5	1.30		Effective	Unconfirmed deaths	[103]	2008
1972–2002	H1N1/H3N2/B	USA	5.5	1.30		Effective	Unconfirmed deaths	[103]	2008
1972–2002	H1N1/H3N2/B	USA; France; Australia	5.5	1.30	1.2–1.4	Effective	Unconfirmed deaths	[103]	2008
1975–2004	H1N1/H3N2/B	Norway	6	1.06–1.69		Effective	Unconfirmed deaths	[104]	2010
1976–1981	H1N1/H3N2/B	USA	2.6	1.70		Basic	Serology confirmed infection	[10]	2006
1976–1981	H1N1/H3N2/B	USA	4.1	1.16		Basic	Serology confirmed infection	[105]	2000
1977–1978	H1N1	United Kingdom	2.2	4.38		Basic	Unconfirmed illness	[106]	2005
1977–1978	H1N1	United Kingdom	3	21.00		Basic	Unconfirmed illness	[13]	2004
1977–1978	H1N1	United Kingdom	4.70	16.90		Basic	Unconfirmed illness	[106]	2005
1984–1985	H1N1/H3N2	France	2.49	1.37		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[107]	1988
1985–2005	H1N1/H3N2/B	United Kingdom	2.2	1.6–2.1		Basic	Unconfirmed illness	[108]	2010
1985–2005	H1N1/H3N2/B	United Kingdom	2.7	1.6–2.5		Basic	Unconfirmed illness	[109]	2012
1985–2006	H1N1/H3N2/B	France	2.4	1.4–1.7	1.3–1.8	Basic	Unconfirmed illness	[110]	2008
1996–2006	H1N1/H3N2/B	Brazil	3	1.03	1.02–1.04	Effective	Unconfirmed deaths	[111]	2010
1998–1999	H3N2	Israel	3	1.14		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[112]	2011
1998–1999	H3N2	Israel	3	1.16		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[112]	2011
1998–1999	H3N2	USA	3	1.18	1.05–1.25	Effective	Laboratory confirmed illness	[113]	2009
1998–2009	H1N1/H3N2/B	Israel	2.5	1.17–1.62		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[114]	2012
1999–2000	H3N2	Israel	3	1.16		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[112]	2011
1999–2000	H3N2	Israel	3	1.18		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[112]	2011
1999–2006	Seasonal H1N1	Taiwan	2	1.19	0.76–1.86	Basic	Confirmed and unconfirmed illness	[115]	2010
1999–2006	H3N2	Taiwan	3	1.41	0.92–2.19	Basic	Confirmed and unconfirmed illness	[115]	2010
1999–2006	B	Taiwan	3	1.07	0.69–1.69	Basic	Confirmed and unconfirmed illness	[115]	2010
2000–2001	H1N1	Israel	3	1.12		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[112]	2011
2000–2009	H1N1/H3N2/B	Italy	4	1.17–1.36		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[116]	2012
2001–2002	H3N2	Israel	3	1.25		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[112]	2011
2001–2002	H3N2	Israel	3	1.27		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[112]	2011
2003–2004	H3N2	Israel	3	1.19		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[112]	2011
2003–2004	H3N2	Israel	3	1.21		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[112]	2011
2003–2004	H3N2	Switzerland	2.6	1.2–1.3		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[117]	2011
2004–2005	H3N2	Israel	3	1.25		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[112]	2011
2004–2005	H3N2	Israel	3	1.25		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[112]	2011
2004–2005	unspecified	Taiwan	4.1	1.00		Effective	Unconfirmed deaths	[118]	2010
2004–2005	H3N2	USA	7	1.20	1.1–1.3	Effective	Laboratory confirmed illness	[119]	2008
2006–2007	H3N2	Israel	3	1.28		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[112]	2011
2006–2007	H3N2	Israel	3	1.33		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[112]	2011
2007–2008	H3N2	Israel	3	1.25		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[112]	2011
2007–2008	H3N2	Israel	3	1.29		Effective	Unconfirmed illness	[112]	2011
2011/12	H1N1	Mexico	3	1.20		Effective	Laboratory confirmed hospitalizations	[120]	2012
2011/12	H1N1	Mexico	3	1.20		Effective	Laboratory confirmed hospitalizations	[121]	2012
2011/12	H1N1	Mexico	4	1.30		Effective	Laboratory confirmed hospitalizations	[121]	2012
Median reproduction number for seasonal influenza: 1.28; Interquartile range 1.19–1.37

^aThe generation time (GT) or serial interval (SI) assumed in the reproduction number estimation
^bConfidence interval
NR = Not reported
This table is also available as a .csv file as Additional file 5.

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