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Table 2 Projected tuberculosis outcomes

From: Modeling the impact of novel diagnostic tests on pediatric and extrapulmonary tuberculosis

 

10-year projected tuberculosis outcomes

 

Incidence per 100,000

Prevalence per 100,000

Mortality per 100,000

 

Adult total

Adult EPTB

Children

Adult total

Adult EPTB

Children

Adult total

Adult EPTB

Children

 

N (% reduction*)

N (% reduction*)

N (% reduction*)

N (% reduction*)

N (% reduction)

N (% reduction*)

N (% reduction*)

N (% reduction*)

N (% reduction*)

Existing standard

89.5 (Ref)

13.9 (Ref)

44.8 (Ref)

114.8 (Ref)

34.4 (Ref)

62.8 (Ref)

22.8 (Ref)

7.3 (Ref)

9.4 (Ref)

Xpert for adult pulmonary TB

86.0 (4.0%)

13.4 (3.7%)

42.6 (5.0%)

109.3 (4.8%)

33.2 (3.5%)

59.8 (4.9%)

21.8 (4.5%)

7.1 (3.0%)

8.9 (4.8%)

NAAT- Peds

86.0 (4.0%)

13.4 (3.7%)

42.6 (5.0%)

109.2 (4.9%)

33.1 (3.9%)

58.5 (6.9%)

21.8 (4.5%)

7.1 (3.3%)

8.7 (6.8%)

NAAT- EPTB

86.0 (4.0%)

13.4 (3.7%)

42.6 (5.0%)

107.8 (6.1%)

31.7 (7.9%)

58.0 (7.7%)

21.4 (5.9%)

6.7 (7.6%)

8.7 (7.6%)

POC NAAT sputum

79.6 (11.1%)

12.5 (10.2%)

38.6 (13.8%)

99.8 (13.0%)

31.0 (9.8%)

54.4 (13.4%)

20.0 (12.2%)

6.7 (8.4%)

8.1 (13.3%)

POC NAAT non- sputum

80.2 (10.4%)

12.6 (9.6%)

39.0 (13.0%)

90.5 (21.2%)

21.1 (38.8%)

41.0 (34.7%)

18.0 (21.3%)

4.5 (38.5%)

6.1 (34.7%)

  1. Abbreviations: POC point of care, NAAT nucleic-acid amplification test, EPTB extrapulmonary TB. *compared to existing standard = Ref. Incidence, prevalence and mortality for children and adults by year ten with different interventions.