Skip to main content

Table 2 Projected tuberculosis outcomes

From: Modeling the impact of novel diagnostic tests on pediatric and extrapulmonary tuberculosis

  10-year projected tuberculosis outcomes
  Incidence per 100,000 Prevalence per 100,000 Mortality per 100,000
  Adult total Adult EPTB Children Adult total Adult EPTB Children Adult total Adult EPTB Children
  N (% reduction*) N (% reduction*) N (% reduction*) N (% reduction*) N (% reduction) N (% reduction*) N (% reduction*) N (% reduction*) N (% reduction*)
Existing standard 89.5 (Ref) 13.9 (Ref) 44.8 (Ref) 114.8 (Ref) 34.4 (Ref) 62.8 (Ref) 22.8 (Ref) 7.3 (Ref) 9.4 (Ref)
Xpert for adult pulmonary TB 86.0 (4.0%) 13.4 (3.7%) 42.6 (5.0%) 109.3 (4.8%) 33.2 (3.5%) 59.8 (4.9%) 21.8 (4.5%) 7.1 (3.0%) 8.9 (4.8%)
NAAT- Peds 86.0 (4.0%) 13.4 (3.7%) 42.6 (5.0%) 109.2 (4.9%) 33.1 (3.9%) 58.5 (6.9%) 21.8 (4.5%) 7.1 (3.3%) 8.7 (6.8%)
NAAT- EPTB 86.0 (4.0%) 13.4 (3.7%) 42.6 (5.0%) 107.8 (6.1%) 31.7 (7.9%) 58.0 (7.7%) 21.4 (5.9%) 6.7 (7.6%) 8.7 (7.6%)
POC NAAT sputum 79.6 (11.1%) 12.5 (10.2%) 38.6 (13.8%) 99.8 (13.0%) 31.0 (9.8%) 54.4 (13.4%) 20.0 (12.2%) 6.7 (8.4%) 8.1 (13.3%)
POC NAAT non- sputum 80.2 (10.4%) 12.6 (9.6%) 39.0 (13.0%) 90.5 (21.2%) 21.1 (38.8%) 41.0 (34.7%) 18.0 (21.3%) 4.5 (38.5%) 6.1 (34.7%)
  1. Abbreviations: POC point of care, NAAT nucleic-acid amplification test, EPTB extrapulmonary TB. *compared to existing standard = Ref. Incidence, prevalence and mortality for children and adults by year ten with different interventions.