Table 3 Details of scenarios and estimates of the number of paralytic cases prevented, reduction of time until WPV elimination by serotype, and vaccine doses administered compared to the reference case for northern India (see Additional file 1 and Duintjer Tebbens et al. (2013)[20] for other model assumptions fixed across all scenarios)
From: The potential impact of expanding target age groups for polio immunization campaigns
Expanded age group scenario | Target age groups of 2008 SIAs (in years), by round | Paralytic cases prevented, 2008–2012 (WPV1&3) [%] | Reduction in WPV elimination time (days)        | Additional vaccine doses administered (millions) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Â | PV1 | PV3 | PV1 & 3 | |||
Bihar a | ||||||
Reference case: No expanded age groups | 0-4 (all rounds) | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference |
Expand Jan 2008 (tOPV) SIA through 14 year olds | 0-14 (Jan); 0–4 (all other rounds) | 45 [11%] | 35 | 1 | 1 | 16.0 |
Expand Jan 2008 (mOPV1) SIA through 14 year olds | 0-14 (Jan); 0–4 (all other rounds) | 26 [6%] | 43 | 0 | 0 | 15.9 |
Expand Jun 2008 (mOPV3) SIA through 14 year olds | 0-14 (Jun); 0–4 (all other rounds) | 25 [6%] | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15.7 |
Expand Jul 2008 (mOPV1) SIA through 14 year olds | 0-14 (Jul); 0–4 (all other rounds) | 19 [5%] | 49 | 0 | 0 | 16.1 |
Coverage in under-vaccinated subpopulation increased by 0.2 during Jun (mOPV3) SIA | 0-4 (all rounds) | 47 [12%] | 0 | 9 | 9 | 0.2 |
Expand Jun (mOPV3) SIA to all ages with coverage in under-vaccinated subpopulation increased by 0.2 | All ages (Jun); 0–4 (all other rounds) | 97 [24%] | 0 | 152 | 152 | 71.7 |
Coverage in under-vaccinated subpopulation increased by 0.2 during Jul (mOPV1) SIA | 0-4 (all rounds) | 16 [4%] | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 |
Expand Jul (mOPV1) SIA to all ages with coverage in under-vaccinated subpopulation increased by 0.2 | All ages (Jul); 0–4 (all other rounds) | 43 [11%] | 417 | 0 | 0 | 73.1 |
Western Uttar Pradesh b | ||||||
Reference case: No expanded age groups | 0-4 (all rounds) | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference |
Expand Jan 2008 (tOPV) SIA through 14 year olds | 0-14 (Jan); 0–4 (all other rounds) | 34 [6%] | 28 | 2 | 2 | 10.5 |
Expand Jan 2008 (mOPV1) SIA through 14 year olds | 0-14 (Jan); 0–4 (all other rounds) | 24 [5%] | 33 | 0 | 0 | 10.4 |
Expand Jun 2008 (mOPV3) SIA through 14 year olds | 0-14 (Jun); 0–4 (all other rounds) | 26 [5%] | 0 | -1 | -1 | 10.3 |
Expand Jul 2008 (mOPV1) SIA through 14 year olds | 0-14 (Jul); 0–4 (all other rounds) | 28 [5%] | 40 | 0 | 0 | 10.4 |
Coverage in under-vaccinated subpopulation increased by 0.2 during Jun (mOPV3) SIA | 0-4 (all rounds) | 39 [7%] | 0 | -11 | -11 | 0.1 |
Expand Jun (mOPV3) SIA to all ages with coverage in under-vaccinated subpopulation increased by 0.2 | All ages (Jun); 0–4 (all other rounds) | 143 [27%] | 0 | -33 | -33 | 47.6 |
Coverage in under-vaccinated subpopulation increased by 0.2 during Jul (mOPV1) SIA | 0-4 (all rounds) | 23 [4%] | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 |
Expand Jul (mOPV1) SIA to all ages with coverage in under-vaccinated subpopulation increased by 0.2 | All ages (Jul); 0–4 (all other rounds) | 55 [10%] | 299 | 0 | 0 | 47.7 |