Table 2 Details of scenarios and estimates of the number of paralytic cases prevented, reduction of time until WPV elimination by serotype, and vaccine doses administered compared to the reference case for Tajikistan with WPV1 imported on November 1, 2009 (top) and the hypothetical alternative reference case with WPV1 imported on December 1, 2009 (bottom) (see Additional file 1 and Duintjer Tebbens et al. (2013)[20] for other model assumptions fixed across all scenarios)
From: The potential impact of expanding target age groups for polio immunization campaigns
Expanded age group scenario | Target age groups of 2010 oSIAs (in years), by round | Dates (vaccines) of 2010 oSIAs, by round | Target age groups of 2009 pSIA(s) | Dates (vaccines) of 2009 pSIA(s) (in years), by round | Paralytic cases prevented, 2010 [%] | Reduction in WPV1 re-interruption time (days) | Additional vaccine doses administered (millions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reference case: Actual target ages | 0-5 (first 2) then 0–14 (last 4) | 5/4 (mOPV1) 5/18 (mOPV1) 6/1 (mOPV1) 6/15 (mOPV1) 10/4 (tOPV) 11/8 (tOPV) | None |  | Reference | Reference | Reference |
No response | None | Â | None | Â | -195 [-40%] | -55 | -7.7 |
All oSIAs target 0–5 year olds | 0-5 (all rounds) | 5/4 (mOPV1) 5/18 (mOPV1) 6/1 (mOPV1) | None |  | -2 [0%] | -6 | -3.7 |
All oSIAs target 0–14 year olds | 0-14 (all rounds) | 6/15 (mOPV1) 10/4 (tOPV) 11/8 (tOPV) | None |  | 19 [4%] | 3 | 1.9 |
Actual target ages, start each round 30 days earlier | 0-5 (first 2) then 0–14 (last 4) | 4/4 (mOPV1) 4/18 (mOPV1) | None |  | 291 [61%] | 23 | 0.0 |
All oSIAs target 0–5 year olds, start each round 30 days earlier | 0-5 (all rounds) | 5/2 (mOPV1) 5/16 (mOPV1) | None |  | 287 [60%] | 10 | -3.7 |
All oSIAs target 0–14 year olds, start each round 30 days earlier | 0-14 (all rounds) | 9/4 (tOPV) 10/8 (tOPV) | None |  | 312 [65%] | 29 | 1.9 |
One pSIA in Spring 2009 targeting 0–5 year olds | None | 0-5 | 5/4 (tOPV) | 481 [100%] | 243 | -7.1 | |
Hypothetical alternative reference case: Actual target ages, WPV1 introduction 30 days later, start each oSIA 7 days later | 0-5 (first 2) then 0–14 (last 4) | 5/11 (mOPV1) 5/25 (mOPV1) 6/8 (mOPV1) 6/23 (mOPV1) 10/11 (tOPV) 11/15 (tOPV) | None | Alternative reference | Alternative reference | Alternative reference | |
One pSIA targets 0–5 year olds in Spring 2009, two oSIAs target 0–5 year olds | 0-5 (both rounds) | 6/7 (mOPV1) 6/21 (mOPV1) | 0-5 | 5/4 (tOPV) | 430 [89%] | -9 | -5.8 |
One pSIA targets 0–14 year olds in Spring 2009, two oSIAs target 0–5 year olds | 0-5 (both rounds) | 6/15 (mOPV1) 6/29 (mOPV1) | 0-14 | 5/4 (tOPV) | 450 [94%] | -6 | -5.3 |
Two pSIAs target 0–5 year olds in Spring 2009, two oSIAs target 0–5 year olds | 0-5 (both rounds) | 7/7 (mOPV1) 7/21 (mOPV1) | 0-5 (both rounds) | 5/4 (tOPV) 6/4 (tOPV) | 471 [98%] | 0 | -5.0 |
Two pSIAs target 0–14 year olds in Spring 2009, two oSIAs target 0–5 year olds | 0-5 (both rounds) | 8/3 (mOPV1) 8/17 (mOPV1) | 0-14 (both rounds) | 5/4 (tOPV) 6/4 (tOPV) | 476 [99%] | 3 | -3.7 |