Table 1 Model inputs that differ from those developed previously[20] after consideration of additional situation-specific data and revised SIA characterization

Generic model inputs:

Ratio of R₀ for PV3 vs. PV1

0.8

0.75

Average time to reach last reversion stag (ϵ, in days) (for PV1; PV2; PV3)^a

547.5; 360; 547.5

620.5; 408; 620.5

Basis for demographic data

World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision [26]

World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision [27]

Tajikistan model inputs:

Relative routine immunization coverage compared to most recent survey (used from 1992 forward)

0.9

0.88

Northern India model inputs:

Number of subpopulations (Bihar)

1

2

Size of subpopulation relative to total population

 - Bihar

NA

10%

 - Western Uttar Pradesh

4%

10%

Proportional change in R₀ due to seasonality (α)

0.25

0.20

Peak day of seasonal amplitude, WUP

195 (July 14)

165 (June 14)

Proportion of potentially infectious contacts of individuals in the under-vaccinated subpopulation with other individuals in the under-vaccinated subpopulation (p _within )

 - Bihar

NA

0.70

 - Western Uttar Pradesh

0.95

0.70

Routine immunization coverage in the under-vaccinated subpopulation

Increasing over time

0

Per-dose take rate (tr) (PV1; PV2; PV3)

 - tOPV

0.35; 0.50; 0.30

0.35; 0.60; 0.27

 - mOPV

0.50; NA; 0.45

0.45; NA; 0.45

 - bOPV

0.45; NA; 0.40

0.42; NA; 0.42

Northwestern Nigeria model inputs:

R₀

8.0

7.5

Proportional change in R₀ due to seasonality (α)

0.05

0.10

Day of seasonal peak in R₀ (pd)

60 (March 1)

100 (April 10)

Basis for routine immunization coverage^b

POL coverage

DTP coverage

Routine immunization coverage relative to reported data

 - General population

1.08

1

 - Under-vaccinated subpopulation

0.29

0

Per-dose take rate (tr) (PV1; PV2; PV3)

 - tOPV

0.45; 0.7; 0.4

0.45; 0.7; 0.35

 - mOPV

0.66; NA; 0.65

0.6; NA; 0.6

 - bOPV

0.54; NA; 0.52

0.54; NA; 0.54