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Table 2 Sensitivity of the model to A: Main model parameters and B: Alternate settings

From: A spatial simulation model for dengue virus infection in urban areas

A
  2003 2008/2009
Parameter variation +50% -50% +50% -50%
Biting rate 1261 (717–1719) 48 (10–117) 2471 (1984–2930) 14 (2–61)
Asymptomatic fraction 362 (172–527) 516 (165–818) 743 (370–938) 698 (100–1086)
Mosquito to human transmission probability 461 (138–746) 217 (18–349) 794 (4–1183) 194 (3–390)
Human to mosquito transmission probability 564 (291–828) 355 (160–538) 880 (501–1355) 439 (25–779)
B
Alternate Setting
No mosquito mobility 34 (6–152) 99 (3–421)
No human mobility 104 (28–184) 19 (6–58)
No state of emergency N/A 1479 (440–2202)
Index cell with low mosquito density 12 (1–26) 4 (1–30)
  1. The values in the table appearing in bold are medians of 60 simulations, with 95% confidence intervals given in parentheses. For comparison the predicted case number without any parameter variation for 2003 and 2008/2009 were 420 (71 – 682) and 692 (174 – 1029) respectively (see e.g. Figure 9 A and D in the main manuscript).