Reproduction of the 2008/2009 epidemic. Panel A pictures the weekly case numbers while panel B pictures cumulative case numbers. Black dots denote the observed weekly outbreak data, black solid lines denote the best stochastic realisation, dotted lines, dark grey and light grey areas denote the median, interquartile range and 95% confidence interval of 57 stochastic realisations, respectively. The black vertical lines indicate the onset of control interventions (day 27 after the index case). Some (3/60) stochastic realizations did not result in further transmission (index case being the only case) and these were excluded from the analysis. The median total number of predicted cases was 692 (172–1029), while the observed number of actual cases in the modelled area was 696.