Figure 3
The likelihood of identifying day of virus introduction ( T s ) and basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) simultaneously with and without varying degrees of reactive sampling. A-D the contour of the log likelihood surface around the true values of R 0 and T s . Reactive sampling of N s a m p l e = 50, 500, 1000, and 2000 birds for A, B, C and D respectively. For illustration purposes an R 0 = 7 and T s = 7 were used. Different colours represent how close each estimate of the likelihood is to the maximum value. Blue indicates greater than 1.92 from the maximised true estimate, green indicates less than 1.92 likelihood point from the maximised true estimate (corresponding to the 95% confidence intervals), yellow indicates less than 1.0 likelihood point from the maximised true estimate and red indicates less than 0.5 points away from the maximised true estimate.