Skip to main content

Table 1 Parameters of the transmission model

From: The epidemiological impact of childhood influenza vaccination using live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in Germany: predictions of a simulation study

Parameter Description Base-case value Reference
R 0 Basic reproduction number 1.6 Chowell et al. [20]; expert opinion
z Amplitude of seasonal transmission 43% Vynnycky et al. [21]
α Outside infection rate (per person per year) 0.001 Assumption
D L Average duration of the latent period (days) 1 Carrat et al. [22]
D I Average duration of the infectious period (days) 5 Carrat et al. [22]
f K Symptomatic fraction of infected individuals 66.9% Carrat et al. [22]
f med Fraction of symptomatic cases who seek medical help (i.e. physician consultation)
- children below 2 years of age 60% Expert opinion
- children from 2 to 6 years of age 40% Expert opinion
- children from 7 to 12 years of age 30% Expert opinion
- juveniles from 13 to 17 years of age 10% Expert opinion
- adults below 60 years of age without increased risk 20% Expert opinion
- adults with increased risk or above 60 years of age 50% Expert opinion
f R Immune fraction before initialising the simulations 45% Assumption
m Fraction of newborns protected by maternal antibodies 30% Assumption
D M Average duration of maternal protection (months) 4 Expert opinion
D R A Average duration of naturally acquired immunity to influenza A (years) 6 Vynnycky et al. [21]
D R B Average duration of naturally acquired immunity to influenza B (years) 12 Vynnycky et al. [21]
D TIV Average duration of TIV induced immunity (years) 0.7 Assumption
D LAIV Average duration of LAIV induced immunity (years) 2.8 Guided by Tam et al. [26]
r 18–44 Percentage of people from 18 to 44 years of age with elevated risk 7.6% Fleming & Elliott [25]
r 45–59 Percentage of people from 45 to 59 years of age with elevated risk 17.6% Fleming & Elliott [25]
  1. TIV trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine; LAIV live-attenuated influenza vaccine.