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Table 1 Parameters of the transmission model

From: The epidemiological impact of childhood influenza vaccination using live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in Germany: predictions of a simulation study

Parameter

Description

Base-case value

Reference

R 0

Basic reproduction number

1.6

Chowell et al. [20]; expert opinion

z

Amplitude of seasonal transmission

43%

Vynnycky et al. [21]

α

Outside infection rate (per person per year)

0.001

Assumption

D L

Average duration of the latent period (days)

1

Carrat et al. [22]

D I

Average duration of the infectious period (days)

5

Carrat et al. [22]

f K

Symptomatic fraction of infected individuals

66.9%

Carrat et al. [22]

f med

Fraction of symptomatic cases who seek medical help (i.e. physician consultation)

- children below 2 years of age

60%

Expert opinion

- children from 2 to 6 years of age

40%

Expert opinion

- children from 7 to 12 years of age

30%

Expert opinion

- juveniles from 13 to 17 years of age

10%

Expert opinion

- adults below 60 years of age without increased risk

20%

Expert opinion

- adults with increased risk or above 60 years of age

50%

Expert opinion

f R

Immune fraction before initialising the simulations

45%

Assumption

m

Fraction of newborns protected by maternal antibodies

30%

Assumption

D M

Average duration of maternal protection (months)

4

Expert opinion

D R A

Average duration of naturally acquired immunity to influenza A (years)

6

Vynnycky et al. [21]

D R B

Average duration of naturally acquired immunity to influenza B (years)

12

Vynnycky et al. [21]

D TIV

Average duration of TIV induced immunity (years)

0.7

Assumption

D LAIV

Average duration of LAIV induced immunity (years)

2.8

Guided by Tam et al. [26]

r 18–44

Percentage of people from 18 to 44 years of age with elevated risk

7.6%

Fleming & Elliott [25]

r 45–59

Percentage of people from 45 to 59 years of age with elevated risk

17.6%

Fleming & Elliott [25]

  1. TIV trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine; LAIV live-attenuated influenza vaccine.