Table 2 Performance of different detection algorithms with sensitivity of 100% to detect influenza (UrgIndex-hospitalisation and ICD10-consultations), excluding data from 2009-S19 to 2010-S18
Time series | Detection algorithms | Outbreaks periods | Non-epidemic periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean timeliness (days) | Number of days with false alarms N = 793 | Specificity (%) | ||
UrgIndex - hospitalisations | C2, k = 0.08, 1d | 3.7 | 149 | 81.2 |
C2, k = 0.08, 3d | 8.7 | 75 | 90.5 | |
C2, k = 0.1, 1d | 3.7 | 120 | 84.9 | |
C2, k = 0.1, 3d | 14.3 | 56 | 92.9 | |
C3, k = 0.08, 1d | −10.7 | 560 | 29.4 | |
C3, k = 0.08, 3d | −8.7 | 497 | 37.3 | |
C3, k = 0.08, 5d | −6.7 | 446 | 43.8 | |
C3, k = 0.1, 1d | −8.3 | 511 | 35.6 | |
C3, k = 0.1, 3d | −6.3 | 440 | 44.5 | |
C3, k = 0.1, 5d | −0.3 | 384 | 51.6 | |
C3, k = 0.5, 1d | 4.0 | 139 | 82.5 | |
C3, k = 0.5, 3d | 6.0 | 78 | 90.2 | |
C3, k = 1, 1d | 4.0 | 41 | 94.8 | |
ICD10 – consultations | C1, k = 0.07, 1d | 1.0 | 37 | 95.3 |
C1, k = 0.07, 3d | 5.0 | 23 | 97.1 | |
C1, k = 0.07, 5d | 12.3 | 15 | 98.1 | |
C1, k = 0.1, 1d | 1.0 | 36 | 95.5 | |
C1, k = 0.1, 3d | 5.0 | 22 | 97.2 | |
C1, k = 0.1, 5d | 12.3 | 14 | 98.2 | |
C2, k = 0.07, 1d | −1.7 | 34 | 95.7 | |
C2, k = 0.07, 3d | 24.7 | 26 | 96.7 | |
C2, k = 0.07, 5d | 26.7 | 18 | 97.7 | |
C2, k = 0.1, 1d | 6.7 | 30 | 96.2 | |
C2, k = 0.1, 3d | 25.0 | 22 | 97.2 | |
C2, k = 0.1, 5d | 27.0 | 14 | 98.2 | |
C3, k = 0.07, 1d | −8.0 | 48 | 93.9 | |
C3, k = 0.07, 3d | 3.0 | 40 | 95.0 | |
C3, k = 0.07, 5d | 5.0 | 35 | 95.6 | |
C3, k = 0.1, 1d | −8.0 | 46 | 94.2 | |
C3, k = 0.1, 3d | 3.0 | 36 | 95.5 | |
C3, k = 0.1, 5d | 5.0 | 31 | 96.1 | |
C3, k = 0.5, 1d | 8.3 | 26 | 96.7 | |