4Flu - an individual based simulation tool to study the effects of quadrivalent vaccination on seasonal influenza in Germany

Table 8 Sensitivity analysis exploring the influence the contact network turnover

Network turnover	Annual mean number of infections with TIV	Annual mean number of infections with QIV	Annual mean number of infections prevented	Percentage prevented by QIV	Contacts persist for 40 years
Lower	9039	8596	442	4.9	0.030%
Lower	(8955–9123)	(8513–8680)	(416–470)	(4.6-5.2)	0.030%
Baseline	8943	8548	395	4.3	0.361%
Baseline	(8885–9001)	(8491–8604)	(376–414)	(4.1-4.5)	0.361%
Higher	9135	8719	416	4.5	9.310%
Higher	(9053–9218)	(8638–8800)	(390–442)	(4.2-4.8)	9.310%

Average annual results (with 95% confidence intervals) obtained for the 20 year evaluation period (calculated from 1,000 simulations for each combination of network turnover and vaccination strategy in a simulated population of about 80,000 individuals (2,000 simulations each for baseline turnover; boldface line). Higher network turnover is obtained by replacing a random sample of 10% of all contacts annually. Lower turnover is obtained by calling the “repair routine” which matches the simulated contact network with the POLYMOD matrix once a year instead of daily (this leads to larger and longer lasting differences between the simulated network and the POLYMOD matrix). The last column shows what percentage of the “childhood acquaintances” of 10 year old children at the beginning of the simulation are still among their contacts at the end of the simulation when they are 50 year adults.

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