4Flu - an individual based simulation tool to study the effects of quadrivalent vaccination on seasonal influenza in Germany

Table 7 Sensitivity analysis exploring the influence of the duration of indirect protection against infection

z	Annual mean number of infections with TIV	Annual mean number of infections with QIV	Annual mean number of infections prevented by QIV	Percentage prevented
0	8943	8548	395	4.3
0	(8885–9001)	(8491–8604)	(376–414)	(4.1-4.5)
7	9024	8617	407	4.3
7	(8948–9100)	(8541–8694)	(367–447)	(3.9-4.8)
14	9176	9727	449	4.7
14	(9097–9254)	(8652–8802)	(409–488)	(4.2-5.1)
21	9186	8722	465	4.9
21	(9114–9259)	(8649–8794)	(424–505)	(4.5-5.3)
28	9151	8732	420	4.3
28	(9077–9226)	(8660–8804)	(378–461)	(3.9-4.8)

Average annual results (with 95% confidence intervals) obtained for the 20 year evaluation period (calculated from 1,000 simulations for each combination of the unspecific protection and vaccination strategy in a simulated population of about 80,000 individuals (2,000 simulations each for the baseline value indicated by z = 0; boldface line). Indirect protection begins 1 day after infection and ends z days after infection; it prevents infection with any one of the influenza viruses. The last column shows what percentage of all influenza infections which occur under TIV vaccination can additionally be prevented by QIV.

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